Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Warren, Austin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
11.9% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.43
ERA current pace4.01
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.70 2.65 3.71 4.76 5.71
FIP
2.75 3.25 3.80 4.35 4.85
K%
18.3% 20.3% 22.5% 24.7% 26.7%
BB%
7.3% 8.5% 9.8% 11.2% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA4.01
51
BB%10.7%
28
K%27.0%
81 +39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
39
Barrel allowed10.9%
9 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%26.1%
76 +51 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+94
11
Curveball Stuff+105
84
Fastball Stuff+95
14
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Austin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-09-13: 0.3312026-09-14: 0.3312026-09-18: 0.3232026-09-19: 0.3232026-09-20: 0.3232026-09-21: 0.3262026-09-22: 0.3262026-09-23: 0.3262026-09-24: 0.3262026-09-25: 0.3262026-09-26: 0.3212026-09-27: 0.321 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Austin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 45.8%Sinker: 27.6%4-Seam Fastball: 15.6%Curveball: 7.1%Changeup: 2.3%Cutter: 1.6% ST46% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 46%SI 28%FF 16%CU 7%CH 2%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 46% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphSinker: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.2 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.8 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.0% 237 107 qualified
SI 27.1% 143 103 limited sample
FB 16.1% 85 95 limited sample
CB 6.8% 36 105 limited sample
CH 3.2% 17 94 limited sample
FC 1.7% 9 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 34%, Sweeper 30%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.22
K% Δ+0.059
Sample49.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings28.8----
Batters Faced115----
K%21.1%11.9% to 26.3%+/- 7.2%
BB%9.8%5.2% to 13.5%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%19.8%11.4% to 24.5%+/- 6.5%
HR/91.290.20 to 2.11+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3240.226 to 0.387+/- 0.080
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.2% to 11.6%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.230.00 to 5.66+/- 2.83
FIP3.822.73 to 5.69+/- 1.48
WHIP1.2900.701 to 1.645+/- 0.472
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%14.8%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

179 career BF

xwOBA0.232
K%15.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.4%