Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Leahy, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
18.0% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace3.65
ERA rolling p503.67
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.39 3.00 3.67 4.35 4.95
FIP
2.65 3.07 3.53 4.00 4.42
K%
20.3% 21.3% 22.4% 23.6% 24.6%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA3.65
65
BB%6.8%
81
K%22.4%
51
xwOBA allowed0.337
26
Barrel allowed9.6%
19
Fastball velo94.2
46
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
5
Whiff%20.1%
28 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+101
39
Fastball Stuff+101
45
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+108
90
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+106
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leahy, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-09-12: 0.3372026-09-13: 0.3342026-09-14: 0.3342026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3372026-09-20: 0.3372026-09-21: 0.3372026-09-22: 0.3372026-09-23: 0.3372026-09-24: 0.3372026-09-25: 0.3372026-09-26: 0.337 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leahy, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leahy, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.0%Slider: 16.4%Curveball: 16.2%Changeup: 14.3%Sweeper: 13.6%Sinker: 13.4% FF26% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 26%SL 16%CU 16%CH 14%ST 14%SI 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leahy, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.4 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 83.0 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphSinker: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.3 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.9% 402 108 qualified
FB 27.4% 381 101 qualified
CB 16.1% 224 101 qualified
CH 14.2% 198 100 limited sample
SI 13.5% 188 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 21%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.005
Sample143.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.2----
Batters Faced279----
K%21.9%18.0% to 28.2%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.2%4.1% to 10.1%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.5%19.0% to 26.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.060.17 to 1.64+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3310.269 to 0.356+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.191.93 to 5.24+/- 1.66
FIP3.562.52 to 4.81+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2300.977 to 1.505+/- 0.264
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

347 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.1%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.2%