Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Burrows, Mike

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
17.7% to 27.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal6 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace5.99
ERA rolling p505.33
Observed weight65%
ERA
4.05 4.65 5.33 6.00 6.60
FIP
3.81 4.39 5.03 5.68 6.26
K%
16.5% 17.6% 18.8% 20.0% 21.1%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
17
ERA5.99
12
BB%7.8%
65
K%17.3%
15 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
26 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
38
Fastball velo94.8
56
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
42
Whiff%20.1%
28 -29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+103
54
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Slider Stuff+109
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burrows, Mike · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-12: 0.3352026-09-13: 0.3352026-09-14: 0.3352026-09-18: 0.3352026-09-19: 0.3352026-09-20: 0.3352026-09-21: 0.3352026-09-22: 0.3352026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.335 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burrows, Mike · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burrows, Mike · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.5%Changeup: 26.8%Slider: 16.7%Curveball: 14.2%Sinker: 13.8% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 27%SL 17%CU 14%SI 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burrows, Mike · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSlider: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.5 mphSL90 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mphSinker: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 28.3% 364 103 qualified
FB 28.0% 361 102 qualified
SL 15.5% 199 109 limited sample
CB 14.7% 189 103 limited sample
SI 13.6% 175 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 24%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.53
K% Δ-0.047
Sample99.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.3----
Batters Faced292----
K%22.0%17.7% to 27.8%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.9%5.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%23.5%19.5% to 28.0%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.450.67 to 2.19+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3180.264 to 0.352+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.0% to 13.2%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.462.54 to 5.99+/- 1.73
FIP4.042.94 to 6.26+/- 1.66
WHIP1.2741.000 to 1.536+/- 0.268
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

212 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%19.2%
BB%8.0%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

212 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%20.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.4%