Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Burrows, Mike

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
17.7% to 27.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace5.40
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.59 4.17 4.82 5.46 6.05
FIP
3.46 4.02 4.64 5.26 5.82
K%
17.4% 18.7% 20.2% 21.6% 22.9%
BB%
5.7% 6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
74
Barrel allowed8.3%
41
Fastball velo94.7
57
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
61
K%18.9%
24 -25 vs proj
Whiff%21.5%
37 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burrows, Mike · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3142026-05-19: 0.3142026-05-21: 0.3142026-05-23: 0.3232026-05-24: 0.3232026-05-25: 0.3232026-05-26: 0.3232026-05-28: 0.3202026-05-29: 0.3202026-05-30: 0.3202026-05-31: 0.3202026-06-01: 0.320 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burrows, Mike · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burrows, Mike · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.3%Changeup: 26.7%Slider: 15.7%Curveball: 14.8%Sinker: 14.5% MIX FF 28%CH 27%SL 16%CU 15%SI 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burrows, Mike · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.2FFCH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.6CHSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.2SLCU: HB 0.1, IVB 4.7CUSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.5SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.3% 285 101 qualified
CH 27.3% 275 103 qualified
SL 15.2% 153 110 limited sample
CB 15.1% 152 102 limited sample
SI 14.2% 143 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 24%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.94
K% Δ-0.031
Sample68.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.6----
Batters Faced289----
K%22.0%17.7% to 27.8%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.9%5.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%23.5%19.5% to 28.0%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.450.67 to 2.19+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3180.264 to 0.352+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.0% to 13.2%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.462.53 to 5.99+/- 1.73
FIP4.042.94 to 6.26+/- 1.66
WHIP1.2751.000 to 1.536+/- 0.268
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

212 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%19.2%
BB%8.0%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

212 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%20.5%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.4%