Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Scott, Christian

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
14.1% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace3.17
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.49 3.03 3.62 4.21 4.74
FIP
3.15 3.43 3.75 4.07 4.36
K%
19.7% 21.4% 23.2% 25.0% 26.7%
BB%
6.3% 7.2% 8.1% 9.1% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
49
ERA3.17
72
BB%10.5%
29 -55 vs proj
K%27.9%
84 +46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
35
Barrel allowed8.8%
33
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
78
Whiff%25.1%
67 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+103
51
Cutter Stuff+104
70
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+92
6
Slider Stuff+106
84
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scott, Christian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-05: 0.3362026-07-06: 0.3362026-07-07: 0.3362026-07-08: 0.3352026-07-09: 0.3352026-07-10: 0.3282026-07-11: 0.3282026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.328 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scott, Christian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scott, Christian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.2%Sweeper: 22.1%Cutter: 17.7%Split-Finger: 5.1%Sinker: 2.0%Slider: 2.0% FF49% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 49%ST 22%FC 18%FS 5%SI 2%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scott, Christian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphCutter: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSplit-Finger: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.4 mphFS84 mphSinker: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphSlider: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.6 mphSL82 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 83.1 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.9% 258 103 qualified
SL 23.6% 111 106 limited sample
FC 18.5% 87 104 limited sample
SI 3.0% 14 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.31
K% Δ+0.071
Sample56.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.5----
Batters Faced604----
K%20.9%14.1% to 26.0%+/- 5.9%
BB%6.2%2.7% to 8.0%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%21.6%14.3% to 23.9%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.670.77 to 2.10+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3190.226 to 0.351+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.2% to 11.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.482.10 to 5.28+/- 1.59
FIP4.412.59 to 4.31+/- 0.86
WHIP1.1910.702 to 1.518+/- 0.408
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

103 career BF

xwOBA0.215
K%14.0%
BB%3.9%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

108 career BF

xwOBA0.196
K%15.2%
BB%3.3%
Barrel6.8%