Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026
Aleman, Franco
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 26
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
42
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 2.97 |
| ERA current pace | 4.43 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.41 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
ERA
1.58
2.45
3.41
4.38
5.24
FIP
1.72
2.81
4.01
5.22
6.30
K%
12.5%
16.2%
20.3%
24.3%
28.0%
BB%
4.4%
6.2%
8.2%
10.2%
12.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.59
13
ERA4.43
40
BB%9.5%
43
K%26.7%
80
+50 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
36
-45 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
65
+21 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
75
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
43
Whiff%24.6%
65
+20 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+102
51
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
66%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 67.2% | 160 | 101 | limited sample |
| SL | 29.8% | 71 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 2.9% | 7 | 88 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.34 |
| K% Δ | +0.076 |
| Sample | 22.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 144 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.1% | 0.4% to 22.1% | +/- 10.8% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 0.1% to 10.6% | +/- 5.3% |
| Whiff% | 21.8% | 2.2% to 27.5% | +/- 12.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.30 | 0.00 to 1.58 | +/- 0.79 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.285 | 0.001 to 0.315 | +/- 0.157 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 0.1% to 9.5% | +/- 4.7% |
| ERA | 4.09 | 0.00 to 4.83 | +/- 2.41 |
| FIP | 4.16 | 0.45 to 6.48 | +/- 3.02 |
| WHIP | 1.273 | 0.052 to 1.401 | +/- 0.675 |
vs LHH
2 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.005 |
| K% | 1.1% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |
vs RHH
3 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.005 |
| K% | 1.1% |
| BB% | 1.8% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |