Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Vodnik, Victor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.1% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace5.72
ERA rolling p504.53
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.62 3.53 4.53 5.54 6.45
FIP
2.84 3.48 4.19 4.90 5.54
K%
16.5% 18.7% 21.2% 23.6% 25.8%
BB%
8.9% 10.5% 12.3% 14.1% 15.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.77
3
ERA5.72
14
BB%15.0%
4 -26 vs proj
K%18.6%
24 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.326
38
Barrel allowed6.6%
68 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo98.5
96
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
67
Whiff%23.0%
51
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+97
19
Cutter Stuff+114
100
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+100
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vodnik, Victor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.326 2026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3252026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3252026-07-11: 0.3262026-07-12: 0.3262026-07-13: 0.3262026-07-14: 0.3262026-07-15: 0.3262026-07-16: 0.3262026-07-17: 0.326 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Vodnik, Victor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vodnik, Victor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.4%Slider: 27.3%Changeup: 18.0%Sinker: 3.3%Cutter: 2.9% FF48% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 27%CH 18%SI 3%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vodnik, Victor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 98.5 mphFF99 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.5 mphCH93 mphSinker: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 98.8 mphSI99 mphCutter: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 92.8 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 189 98 limited sample
SL 25.6% 99 100 limited sample
CH 18.3% 71 97 limited sample
SI 4.4% 17 100 limited sample
FC 2.8% 11 114 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.327 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Changeup 26%, Slider 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.54
K% Δ-0.042
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.0----
Batters Faced168----
K%22.8%17.1% to 31.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%5.6% to 15.4%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%23.9%18.1% to 30.7%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.090.34 to 1.93+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.3290.252 to 0.388+/- 0.068
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.7% to 12.0%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.181.20 to 6.43+/- 2.61
FIP4.202.53 to 6.23+/- 1.85
WHIP1.4001.086 to 1.842+/- 0.378
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

290 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%18.2%
BB%13.5%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

341 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%21.7%
BB%8.4%
Barrel7.3%