Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Madden, Ty

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal5 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.00
ERA current pace3.29
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.41 3.02 3.69 4.37 4.98
FIP
2.36 3.06 3.84 4.61 5.31
K%
17.2% 19.0% 21.0% 23.1% 24.9%
BB%
6.0% 7.0% 8.1% 9.2% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
86
ERA3.29
76
BB%7.7%
67 +15 vs proj
K%23.8%
64 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.273
87 +56 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
29
Hard-hit allowed30.6%
94
Whiff%23.4%
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+97
15
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+97
16
Sinker Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+94
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Madden, Ty · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.273 2026-09-12: 0.2692026-09-13: 0.2692026-09-14: 0.2692026-09-18: 0.2652026-09-19: 0.2652026-09-20: 0.2652026-09-21: 0.2732026-09-22: 0.2732026-09-23: 0.2732026-09-24: 0.2732026-09-25: 0.2732026-09-26: 0.273 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Madden, Ty · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Madden, Ty · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.7%Slider: 21.4%Cutter: 20.3%Split-Finger: 14.0%Sinker: 10.7%Knuckle Curve: 0.8% FF33% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 21%FC 20%FS 14%SI 11%KC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Madden, Ty · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.8 mphSL84 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.4 mphFS85 mphSinker: 11% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphKnuckle Curve: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.8 mphKC79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.3% 149 96 limited sample
FC 25.6% 102 97 limited sample
SL 22.3% 89 94 limited sample
SI 13.5% 54 104 limited sample
CB 1.3% 5 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.18
K% Δ+0.032
Sample43.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.1----
Batters Faced300----
K%20.6%13.3% to 25.4%+/- 6.1%
BB%8.7%5.7% to 12.2%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%21.8%14.7% to 26.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.380.38 to 2.16+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.3280.244 to 0.365+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.5% to 10.7%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.472.38 to 5.97+/- 1.80
FIP4.092.72 to 6.85+/- 2.07
WHIP1.3920.990 to 1.653+/- 0.332
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

55 career BF

xwOBA0.220
K%12.7%
BB%7.9%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

52 career BF

xwOBA0.209
K%13.2%
BB%5.9%
Barrel6.0%