Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Wrobleski, Justin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
21.3% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason4.45
ERA current pace2.94
ERA rolling p503.60
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.44 2.99 3.60 4.21 4.76
FIP
2.73 3.20 3.71 4.23 4.70
K%
17.4% 18.7% 20.1% 21.6% 22.9%
BB%
4.6% 5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.00
91
ERA2.94
73
BB%5.2%
94 +21 vs proj
K%16.2%
10 -58 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
43 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
46
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed42.3%
32
Whiff%17.2%
9 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-15
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+101
47
Changeup Stuff+99
24
Curveball Stuff+102
59
Sinker Stuff+100
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wrobleski, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.320 2026-06-04: 0.3102026-06-05: 0.3102026-06-06: 0.3102026-06-07: 0.3102026-06-08: 0.3102026-06-09: 0.3102026-06-10: 0.3102026-06-11: 0.3102026-06-12: 0.3102026-06-13: 0.3202026-06-14: 0.3202026-06-15: 0.320 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wrobleski, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wrobleski, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.3%Slider: 33.5%Curveball: 5.6%Sinker: 5.6%Changeup: 3.6%Sweeper: 0.7% FF50% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 50%SL 34%CU 6%SI 6%CH 4%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wrobleski, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSlider: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 74.4 mphCU74 mphSinker: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.3% 455 106 qualified
SL 34.2% 309 101 qualified
CB 6.2% 56 102 limited sample
SI 4.9% 44 100 limited sample
CH 3.9% 35 99 limited sample
FC 0.6% 5 55 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.281 vs 0.303 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 25%, Sinker 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.27
K% Δ-0.090
Sample77.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.8----
Batters Faced287----
K%25.2%21.3% to 31.7%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.1%4.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.5%18.0% to 26.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.430.80 to 2.08+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.2930.281 to 0.353+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.1% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.213.46 to 6.71+/- 1.63
FIP3.952.88 to 5.65+/- 1.38
WHIP1.2571.111 to 1.590+/- 0.240
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

138 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%24.2%
BB%5.8%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

318 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%22.9%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.1%