Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Rodriguez, Grayson

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
19.8% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal5 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace5.96
ERA rolling p505.19
Observed weight65%
ERA
4.23 4.69 5.19 5.70 6.16
FIP
3.57 4.00 4.47 4.94 5.37
K%
18.6% 19.6% 20.8% 21.9% 22.9%
BB%
7.3% 7.9% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
14
ERA5.96
12
BB%9.7%
42 -31 vs proj
K%19.1%
30 -31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.360
9 -40 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
30
Fastball velo96.1
77
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
11
Whiff%21.3%
39 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Curveball Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Grayson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.360 2026-09-12: 0.3602026-09-13: 0.3602026-09-14: 0.3562026-09-18: 0.3562026-09-19: 0.3572026-09-20: 0.3572026-09-21: 0.3572026-09-22: 0.3572026-09-23: 0.3572026-09-24: 0.3572026-09-25: 0.3572026-09-26: 0.360 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Grayson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Grayson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.1%Changeup: 26.4%Curveball: 11.8%Slider: 10.7% FF51% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 51%CH 26%CU 12%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Grayson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphSlider: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.0 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.1% 388 106 qualified
CH 27.0% 222 101 qualified
SL 14.3% 118 105 limited sample
CB 11.5% 95 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.86
K% Δ-0.043
Sample97.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.6----
Batters Faced617----
K%23.4%19.8% to 28.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 9.5%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%24.8%21.8% to 28.5%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.520.96 to 2.07+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3120.276 to 0.336+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.1% to 10.8%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.103.04 to 5.65+/- 1.30
FIP3.933.09 to 5.53+/- 1.22
WHIP1.2281.071 to 1.476+/- 0.203
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%21.4%
BB%8.0%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

580 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.7%
BB%5.9%
Barrel7.6%