Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Avila, Luinder

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
16.1% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 25 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
18
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.40
ERA current pace5.53
ERA rolling p504.61
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.80 3.66 4.61 5.56 6.41
FIP
2.86 3.53 4.29 5.04 5.72
K%
18.4% 20.1% 22.0% 23.9% 25.6%
BB%
9.6% 10.6% 11.9% 13.1% 14.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.69
7
ERA5.53
17
BB%13.5%
9 -30 vs proj
K%19.6%
33 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
24 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
75 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
71
Whiff%22.1%
47 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Changeup Stuff+97
20
Curveball Stuff+105
86
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+103
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Avila, Luinder · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-09-12: 0.3392026-09-13: 0.3392026-09-14: 0.3392026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.339 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Avila, Luinder · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.4%4-Seam Fastball: 26.0%Slider: 21.7%Curveball: 14.7%Changeup: 10.3% SI27% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 27%FF 26%SL 22%CU 15%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Avila, Luinder · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.4 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSlider: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.0 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.5% 145 96 limited sample
SL 28.3% 144 103 limited sample
FB 25.5% 130 107 limited sample
CB 9.0% 46 105 limited sample
CH 8.6% 44 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 33%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.27
K% Δ-0.043
Sample67.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.7----
Batters Faced131----
K%23.9%16.1% to 30.8%+/- 7.3%
BB%9.9%4.9% to 13.2%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%26.5%15.9% to 32.6%+/- 8.3%
HR/91.070.00 to 1.86+/- 0.93
xwOBA Against0.3130.143 to 0.355+/- 0.106
Barrel% Allowed7.2%0.5% to 9.9%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.260.40 to 5.47+/- 2.53
FIP3.871.69 to 5.70+/- 2.01
WHIP1.3190.588 to 1.737+/- 0.575
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

25 career BF

xwOBA0.148
K%18.0%
BB%7.5%
Barrel2.2%
vs RHH

31 career BF

xwOBA0.144
K%19.0%
BB%6.0%
Barrel2.3%