Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Teng, Kai-Wei

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.3% K%
Range
18.4% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason5.28
ERA current pace2.19
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.86 2.86 3.97 5.08 6.08
FIP
2.95 3.47 4.05 4.62 5.14
K%
20.5% 22.4% 24.4% 26.4% 28.2%
BB%
7.4% 8.6% 10.0% 11.3% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.8%
25
Barrel allowed5.6%
77
Fastball velo94.0
45
Hard-hit allowed36.1%
70
K%25.0%
69
Whiff%25.6%
69
xwOBA allowed0.299
64
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Teng, Kai-Wei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3082026-05-19: 0.3082026-05-21: 0.3082026-05-23: 0.3082026-05-24: 0.3012026-05-25: 0.3012026-05-26: 0.3012026-05-28: 0.3012026-05-29: 0.3002026-05-30: 0.3002026-05-31: 0.2992026-06-01: 0.299 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Teng, Kai-Wei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Teng, Kai-Wei · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 36.2%4-Seam Fastball: 25.4%Sinker: 18.3%Changeup: 9.4%Curveball: 9.4%Slider: 1.3% MIX ST 36%FF 25%SI 18%CH 9%CU 9%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Teng, Kai-Wei · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.1STFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.5FFSI: HB 0.8, IVB 2.1SICH: HB -1.1, IVB 2.7CHCU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.1CUSL: HB 0.1, IVB 2.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.7% 219 110 qualified
FB 26.3% 153 98 limited sample
SI 17.0% 99 106 limited sample
CB 10.0% 58 103 limited sample
CH 9.0% 52 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.70
K% Δ+0.007
Sample43.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.8----
Batters Faced284----
K%24.3%18.4% to 30.2%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.6%6.2% to 14.0%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%25.0%19.7% to 30.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.270.35 to 1.85+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3120.264 to 0.359+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed6.5%3.4% to 9.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.892.38 to 8.28+/- 2.95
FIP3.812.62 to 5.69+/- 1.54
WHIP1.2881.080 to 1.724+/- 0.322
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

96 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%19.8%
BB%10.8%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

106 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.9%
BB%10.2%
Barrel4.9%