Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Teng, Kai-Wei

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.3% K%
Range
18.4% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason5.28
ERA current pace4.36
ERA rolling p504.78
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.68 3.67 4.78 5.88 6.87
FIP
3.23 3.75 4.32 4.90 5.42
K%
19.8% 21.3% 22.9% 24.6% 26.1%
BB%
7.4% 8.4% 9.6% 10.7% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
47
ERA4.36
41
BB%9.7%
36
K%22.1%
47 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
33 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
62
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
38
Whiff%25.3%
70
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+110
93
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+102
45
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Teng, Kai-Wei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-07-06: 0.3302026-07-07: 0.3302026-07-08: 0.3302026-07-09: 0.3302026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3302026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.3302026-07-17: 0.330 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Teng, Kai-Wei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Teng, Kai-Wei · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 34.2%4-Seam Fastball: 27.8%Sinker: 16.3%Changeup: 10.2%Curveball: 9.7%Slider: 1.9% ST34% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 34%FF 28%SI 16%CH 10%CU 10%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Teng, Kai-Wei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.4 mphST84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphSinker: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.5 mphCU82 mphSlider: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.9% 269 110 qualified
FB 26.3% 197 99 limited sample
SI 16.3% 122 105 limited sample
CB 11.9% 89 102 limited sample
CH 9.6% 72 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.53
K% Δ-0.022
Sample65.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.4----
Batters Faced282----
K%24.3%18.4% to 30.2%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.6%6.2% to 14.0%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%25.0%19.7% to 30.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.270.35 to 1.85+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3120.264 to 0.359+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed6.5%3.4% to 9.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.892.38 to 8.28+/- 2.95
FIP3.812.62 to 5.70+/- 1.54
WHIP1.2881.081 to 1.724+/- 0.322
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

96 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%19.8%
BB%10.8%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

106 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.9%
BB%10.2%
Barrel4.9%