Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Ferrer, Jose A.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
17.2% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace1.80
ERA rolling p503.04
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.28 2.11 3.04 3.97 4.80
FIP
2.33 2.82 3.35 3.89 4.37
K%
17.4% 19.8% 22.4% 25.0% 27.4%
BB%
2.6% 3.8% 5.1% 6.5% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.0%
97
Barrel allowed2.3%
98 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
88
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
74
K%22.2%
50
Whiff%23.3%
52
xwOBA allowed0.241
96 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ferrer, José A. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2592026-05-19: 0.2592026-05-21: 0.2482026-05-23: 0.2442026-05-24: 0.2442026-05-25: 0.2442026-05-26: 0.2442026-05-28: 0.2412026-05-29: 0.2412026-05-30: 0.2412026-05-31: 0.2412026-06-01: 0.241 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ferrer, José A. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferrer, José A. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 64.2%Changeup: 17.9%Slider: 17.7%4-Seam Fastball: 0.2% MIX SI 64%CH 18%SL 18%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferrer, José A. · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.0, IVB 1.9SICH: HB -1.3, IVB 2.7CHSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.0SLFF: HB -1.5, IVB 1.9FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 64.3% 241 111 qualified
CH 19.5% 73 94 limited sample
SL 16.0% 60 98 limited sample
FB 0.3% 1 117 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.249 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 62%, Changeup 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.94
K% Δ-0.003
Sample28.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.2----
Batters Faced166----
K%22.5%17.2% to 31.7%+/- 7.2%
BB%6.0%3.4% to 10.8%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%23.9%19.2% to 29.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.970.39 to 1.65+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.2820.239 to 0.340+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed6.1%2.3% to 9.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.742.16 to 6.91+/- 2.38
FIP3.092.08 to 4.83+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2240.964 to 1.698+/- 0.367
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

222 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.0%
BB%4.3%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHH

390 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%20.2%
BB%5.3%
Barrel4.6%