Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Ferrer, Jose A.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
17.2% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal4 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace3.67
ERA rolling p503.68
Observed weight56%
ERA
1.99 2.79 3.68 4.57 5.37
FIP
2.82 3.28 3.80 4.31 4.77
K%
17.4% 19.1% 21.0% 22.8% 24.5%
BB%
4.3% 5.2% 6.2% 7.2% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
32
ERA3.67
63
BB%6.6%
84
K%19.7%
33 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.305
60 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
73
Fastball velo97.5
92
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
58
Whiff%19.2%
21 -38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+111
98
Changeup Stuff+97
19
Slider Stuff+99
28
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 68%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ferrer, José A. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-12: 0.3032026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.2992026-09-20: 0.2992026-09-21: 0.2982026-09-22: 0.2982026-09-23: 0.3082026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.305 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ferrer, José A. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferrer, José A. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 68.3%Changeup: 17.5%Slider: 13.7%4-Seam Fastball: 0.5% SI68% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 68%CH 18%SL 14%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferrer, José A. · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 68% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 97.5 mphSI98 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.5 mphCH88 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 97.9 mphFF98 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 65.6% 484 111 qualified
CH 19.6% 145 97 limited sample
SL 14.0% 103 99 limited sample
FB 0.8% 6 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.249 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 62%, Changeup 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.07
K% Δ-0.028
Sample66.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.1----
Batters Faced162----
K%22.5%17.2% to 31.7%+/- 7.2%
BB%6.0%3.4% to 10.8%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%23.9%19.2% to 29.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.940.39 to 1.65+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.2820.239 to 0.340+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed6.1%2.3% to 9.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.742.16 to 6.91+/- 2.38
FIP3.062.08 to 4.83+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2240.964 to 1.698+/- 0.367
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

222 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.0%
BB%4.3%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHH

390 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%20.2%
BB%5.3%
Barrel4.6%