Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Ferrer, Jose A.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
17.2% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal4 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace2.95
ERA rolling p503.36
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.67 2.47 3.36 4.25 5.06
FIP
2.59 3.06 3.57 4.08 4.55
K%
17.5% 19.6% 21.9% 24.2% 26.2%
BB%
3.7% 4.8% 6.0% 7.2% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
38
ERA2.95
77
BB%6.3%
84
K%21.1%
39
xwOBA allowed0.281
82
Barrel allowed5.3%
83
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
72
Whiff%21.1%
34 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Sinker Stuff+110
97
Changeup Stuff+93
8
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Slider Stuff+97
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 69%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ferrer, José A. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.281 2026-07-05: 0.2742026-07-06: 0.2742026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2722026-07-10: 0.2722026-07-11: 0.2722026-07-12: 0.2792026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2812026-07-15: 0.2812026-07-16: 0.281 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ferrer, José A. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferrer, José A. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 69.4%Changeup: 16.4%Slider: 14.1%4-Seam Fastball: 0.1% SI69% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 69%CH 16%SL 14%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferrer, José A. · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 69% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 97.3 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphSlider: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 66.9% 291 110 qualified
CH 18.4% 80 93 limited sample
SL 14.5% 63 97 limited sample
FB 0.2% 1 116 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.249 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 62%, Changeup 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.79
K% Δ-0.015
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.5----
Batters Faced163----
K%22.5%17.2% to 31.7%+/- 7.2%
BB%6.0%3.4% to 10.8%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%23.9%19.2% to 29.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.970.39 to 1.65+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.2820.239 to 0.340+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed6.1%2.3% to 9.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.742.16 to 6.91+/- 2.38
FIP3.062.08 to 4.83+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2240.964 to 1.698+/- 0.367
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

222 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.0%
BB%4.3%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHH

390 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%20.2%
BB%5.3%
Barrel4.6%