Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Perkins, Jack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
18.0% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
85
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.30
ERA current pace6.87
ERA rolling p505.69
Observed weight54%
ERA
4.63 5.13 5.69 6.24 6.75
FIP
3.50 3.84 4.22 4.60 4.94
K%
21.7% 23.2% 24.9% 26.6% 28.1%
BB%
7.3% 8.2% 9.1% 10.1% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
30
ERA6.87
4
BB%8.9%
45
K%26.8%
78 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
44
Barrel allowed7.6%
53 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
74
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
50
Whiff%25.8%
72 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+104
59
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Changeup Stuff+110
93
Cutter Stuff+107
94
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+109
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Perkins, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.318 2026-07-05: 0.3132026-07-06: 0.3132026-07-07: 0.3132026-07-08: 0.3132026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3142026-07-12: 0.3142026-07-13: 0.3142026-07-14: 0.3182026-07-15: 0.3182026-07-16: 0.318 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Perkins, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Perkins, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.8%Sweeper: 29.9%Changeup: 17.7%Cutter: 9.2%Sinker: 2.9%Slider: 2.5% FF38% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 38%ST 30%CH 18%FC 9%SI 3%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Perkins, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.1 mphST86 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.7 mphCH90 mphCutter: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.5 mphFC93 mphSinker: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.8% 207 104 qualified
SL 33.1% 172 109 limited sample
CH 16.5% 86 110 limited sample
FC 8.3% 43 107 limited sample
SI 2.3% 12 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Sweeper 33%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.22
K% Δ+0.051
Sample61.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.9----
Batters Faced275----
K%21.6%18.0% to 29.2%+/- 5.6%
BB%9.3%6.9% to 12.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%29.2%23.3% to 33.7%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.340.69 to 1.82+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3280.269 to 0.345+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.8% to 12.1%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.653.12 to 6.11+/- 1.49
FIP4.403.21 to 5.24+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3100.948 to 1.582+/- 0.317
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%19.5%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

78 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%19.5%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.6%