Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Halvorsen, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
16.6% to 33.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 26 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
9
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal3 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace4.74
ERA rolling p504.01
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.38 3.15 4.01 4.86 5.63
FIP
3.68 4.10 4.57 5.04 5.46
K%
15.9% 18.7% 21.7% 24.8% 27.5%
BB%
9.3% 10.7% 12.3% 14.0% 15.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP2.11
0
ERA4.74
31
BB%16.4%
2 -26 vs proj
K%16.4%
11 -46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.395
2 -43 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +36 vs proj
Fastball velo98.8
98
Hard-hit allowed40.5%
39
Whiff%21.0%
33 -45 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 61%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Halvorsen, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.395 2026-07-06: 0.3952026-07-07: 0.3952026-07-08: 0.3952026-07-09: 0.3952026-07-10: 0.3952026-07-11: 0.3952026-07-12: 0.3952026-07-13: 0.3952026-07-14: 0.3952026-07-15: 0.3952026-07-16: 0.3952026-07-17: 0.395 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Halvorsen, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Halvorsen, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 60.9%Slider: 29.0%Split-Finger: 9.7%Sinker: 0.5% FF61% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 61%SL 29%FS 10%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Halvorsen, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 61% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.8 mphFF99 mphSlider: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.7 mphFS90 mphSinker: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 98.2 mphSI98 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 69.4% 159 98 limited sample
SL 30.6% 70 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Split-Finger 25%, Slider 21%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.34
K% Δ-0.070
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.9----
Batters Faced145----
K%23.4%16.6% to 33.0%+/- 8.2%
BB%10.6%7.0% to 14.9%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%27.0%22.0% to 34.7%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.120.59 to 2.26+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.3180.251 to 0.363+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.5% to 11.9%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.402.28 to 6.59+/- 2.16
FIP4.122.89 to 5.25+/- 1.18
WHIP1.4161.030 to 1.820+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%19.5%
BB%10.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

112 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%23.1%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.4%