Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Dobnak, Randy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
15.6% K%
Range
6.2% to 20.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace3.08
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.12 2.82 3.61 4.39 5.09
FIP
3.12 3.61 4.15 4.70 5.19
K%
11.4% 13.0% 14.7% 16.4% 17.9%
BB%
5.9% 6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA3.08
81
BB%7.6%
69
K%15.0%
6
xwOBA allowed0.336
26 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
12
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
28
Whiff%17.5%
10
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Sinker Stuff+104
68
Changeup Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+97
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dobnak, Randy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.336 2026-09-12: 0.3352026-09-13: 0.3252026-09-14: 0.3252026-09-18: 0.3252026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3292026-09-21: 0.3292026-09-22: 0.3292026-09-23: 0.3292026-09-24: 0.3292026-09-25: 0.3292026-09-26: 0.336 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dobnak, Randy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobnak, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.4%Sweeper: 25.2%Changeup: 22.0%4-Seam Fastball: 9.7%Slider: 4.8% SI38% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 38%ST 25%CH 22%FF 10%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobnak, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 10% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.7 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 37.2% 223 104 qualified
SL 29.8% 179 97 limited sample
CH 22.3% 134 99 limited sample
FB 10.7% 64 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 35%, Slider 28%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.28
K% Δ-0.006
Sample76.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.1----
Batters Faced122----
K%15.6%6.2% to 20.4%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.4%4.6% to 12.0%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%18.6%8.8% to 24.6%+/- 7.9%
HR/91.380.30 to 2.04+/- 0.87
xwOBA Against0.3100.212 to 0.367+/- 0.077
Barrel% Allowed6.6%1.9% to 10.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.361.29 to 5.43+/- 2.07
FIP3.873.33 to 6.22+/- 1.45
WHIP1.2740.694 to 1.674+/- 0.490
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

302 career BF

xwOBA0.207
K%6.4%
BB%7.1%
Barrel3.6%
vs RHH

357 career BF

xwOBA0.196
K%6.8%
BB%5.7%
Barrel3.4%