Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Wilcox, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
0.5% to 24.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace4.00
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.56 3.34 4.20 5.07 5.85
FIP
2.38 3.17 4.04 4.91 5.70
K%
11.2% 15.0% 19.3% 23.5% 27.4%
BB%
6.7% 8.3% 10.1% 11.8% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
16
ERA4.00
52
BB%13.0%
11 -36 vs proj
K%23.7%
63 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.355
12 -66 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70
Fastball velo96.6
83
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
16
Whiff%27.5%
84 +42 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+112
98
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Slider Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wilcox, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.355 2026-09-12: 0.3552026-09-13: 0.3552026-09-14: 0.3552026-09-18: 0.3552026-09-19: 0.3552026-09-20: 0.3552026-09-21: 0.3552026-09-22: 0.3552026-09-23: 0.3552026-09-24: 0.3552026-09-25: 0.3552026-09-26: 0.355 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wilcox, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wilcox, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Sweeper: 25.6%Slider: 19.1%Sinker: 16.8%Changeup: 11.6% FF27% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 27%ST 26%SL 19%SI 17%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wilcox, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.6 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.5 mphST87 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphSinker: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.9 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.9% 140 102 limited sample
FB 24.7% 72 97 limited sample
SI 19.5% 57 89 limited sample
CH 7.9% 23 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 36%, Slider 26%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.21
K% Δ+0.021
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.3----
Batters Faced155----
K%21.6%0.5% to 24.9%+/- 12.2%
BB%9.1%0.8% to 10.2%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%21.5%1.4% to 25.9%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.060.00 to 1.27+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.2890.044 to 0.312+/- 0.134
Barrel% Allowed6.9%0.1% to 8.9%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.211.26 to 5.72+/- 2.23
FIP3.701.21 to 5.71+/- 2.25
WHIP1.3430.715 to 1.764+/- 0.525
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.053
K%1.2%
BB%3.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

8 career BF

xwOBA0.050
K%1.3%
BB%2.3%
Barrel0.1%