Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Weathers, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
17.0% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.87
ERA current pace3.60
ERA rolling p503.68
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.44 3.02 3.68 4.33 4.92
FIP
3.02 3.42 3.86 4.31 4.71
K%
21.8% 23.0% 24.3% 25.5% 26.7%
BB%
5.7% 6.3% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
61
ERA3.60
67
BB%6.6%
83 +24 vs proj
K%25.0%
71 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.319
42 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
22 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
27
Whiff%25.2%
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+106
77
Slider Stuff+105
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weathers, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-13: 0.3192026-09-14: 0.3192026-09-18: 0.3192026-09-19: 0.3192026-09-20: 0.3192026-09-21: 0.3192026-09-22: 0.3192026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3192026-09-25: 0.3192026-09-26: 0.3192026-09-27: 0.319 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weathers, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weathers, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 24.7%4-Seam Fastball: 22.7%Sinker: 20.7%Sweeper: 20.5%Slider: 11.4% CH25% · 86 mphprimary pitch CH 25%FF 23%SI 21%ST 20%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weathers, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 25% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSinker: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.4 mphST81 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 29.8% 458 105 qualified
CH 24.6% 377 101 qualified
FB 24.3% 373 105 qualified
SI 21.3% 327 106 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.307 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Changeup 29%, Sweeper 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ+0.037
Sample144.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.7----
Batters Faced298----
K%21.4%17.0% to 29.8%+/- 6.4%
BB%8.1%5.4% to 10.3%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%26.4%20.9% to 30.7%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.281.05 to 2.40+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3070.272 to 0.339+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.1%6.1% to 11.9%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.152.55 to 5.77+/- 1.61
FIP4.112.96 to 5.16+/- 1.10
WHIP1.2910.990 to 1.564+/- 0.287
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

342 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%21.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

986 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%19.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel9.0%