Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Weathers, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
17.0% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.87
ERA current pace4.15
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.86 3.43 4.05 4.68 5.24
FIP
3.26 3.64 4.07 4.50 4.88
K%
22.3% 23.6% 25.1% 26.6% 28.0%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
55
ERA4.15
46
BB%6.5%
82 +24 vs proj
K%26.6%
77 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
40 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.9%
13 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
65
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
25
Whiff%25.2%
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weathers, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.324 2026-07-05: 0.3322026-07-06: 0.3322026-07-07: 0.3312026-07-08: 0.3312026-07-09: 0.3312026-07-10: 0.3312026-07-11: 0.3312026-07-12: 0.3242026-07-13: 0.3242026-07-14: 0.3242026-07-15: 0.3242026-07-16: 0.324 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weathers, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weathers, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.6%Changeup: 23.0%Sweeper: 20.8%Sinker: 18.0%Slider: 10.7% FF28% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 23%ST 21%SI 18%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weathers, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.5 mphST82 mphSinker: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 29.9% 351 105 qualified
FB 29.0% 340 105 qualified
CH 23.5% 276 102 qualified
SI 17.6% 207 104 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.307 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Changeup 29%, Sweeper 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ+0.052
Sample104.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.7----
Batters Faced293----
K%21.4%17.0% to 29.8%+/- 6.4%
BB%8.1%5.4% to 10.3%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%26.4%20.9% to 30.7%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.281.05 to 2.40+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3070.272 to 0.339+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.1%6.1% to 11.9%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.122.55 to 5.77+/- 1.61
FIP4.112.96 to 5.16+/- 1.10
WHIP1.2910.990 to 1.564+/- 0.287
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

342 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%21.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

986 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%19.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel9.0%