Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Rocker, Kumar

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace4.40
ERA rolling p504.31
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.20 3.72 4.31 4.89 5.42
FIP
3.39 3.71 4.06 4.42 4.74
K%
19.1% 20.3% 21.6% 23.0% 24.2%
BB%
7.1% 7.8% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
38
ERA4.40
40
BB%8.9%
46
K%21.2%
40
xwOBA allowed0.334
29 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
54 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
49
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
19
Whiff%23.9%
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Slider Stuff+96
14
Changeup Stuff+96
15
Cutter Stuff+98
20
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rocker, Kumar · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.334 2026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3302026-07-08: 0.3302026-07-09: 0.3302026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3342026-07-14: 0.3342026-07-15: 0.3342026-07-16: 0.3342026-07-17: 0.334 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rocker, Kumar · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rocker, Kumar · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.5%Sinker: 30.6%Cutter: 14.8%4-Seam Fastball: 11.3%Changeup: 5.6%Pitch Out: 0.1% SL38% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 38%SI 31%FC 15%FF 11%CH 6%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rocker, Kumar · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.3 mphSL83 mphSinker: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.8 mphPO91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 39.0% 397 96 qualified
SI 33.9% 345 103 qualified
FC 10.7% 109 98 limited sample
FB 9.8% 100 101 limited sample
CH 6.5% 66 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.299 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 26%, Cutter 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.17
K% Δ-0.001
Sample92.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.4----
Batters Faced298----
K%21.3%16.9% to 27.2%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.1%5.9% to 10.9%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.2%19.8% to 27.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.390.82 to 2.02+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3150.276 to 0.335+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.4% to 12.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.233.29 to 6.33+/- 1.52
FIP4.062.92 to 4.77+/- 0.93
WHIP1.3051.077 to 1.621+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%17.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

181 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%19.7%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.0%