Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Hill, Jaden

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
15.8% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace2.79
ERA rolling p503.56
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.76 2.62 3.56 4.51 5.37
FIP
2.38 2.90 3.48 4.06 4.58
K%
17.6% 20.2% 23.1% 25.9% 28.5%
BB%
5.8% 7.3% 9.0% 10.7% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
36
Barrel allowed3.0%
94 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed40.9%
40
K%26.0%
75 +20 vs proj
Whiff%28.9%
86 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.288
73 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hill, Jaden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.2892026-05-23: 0.2922026-05-24: 0.2922026-05-25: 0.2922026-05-26: 0.2972026-05-28: 0.2972026-05-29: 0.2972026-05-30: 0.2972026-05-31: 0.2882026-06-01: 0.288 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hill, Jaden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Jaden · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 31.8%4-Seam Fastball: 27.3%Changeup: 20.5%Sinker: 20.5% MIX SL 32%FF 27%CH 20%SI 20% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Jaden · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.0SLFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.1, IVB 3.0CHSI: HB 0.3, IVB 1.7SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 31.6% 104 108 limited sample
FB 27.7% 91 99 limited sample
CH 20.7% 68 103 limited sample
SI 20.1% 66 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Slider 25%, Changeup 24%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.43
K% Δ+0.029
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.2----
Batters Faced141----
K%23.0%15.8% to 30.7%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.5%4.9% to 13.5%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%23.9%18.4% to 29.8%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.140.26 to 1.81+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3080.232 to 0.355+/- 0.062
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.1% to 9.1%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.221.69 to 6.43+/- 2.37
FIP3.702.57 to 5.46+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3540.956 to 1.735+/- 0.389
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

94 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%18.5%
BB%8.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

102 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%19.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel4.1%