Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Hill, Jaden

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
15.8% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace5.06
ERA rolling p504.33
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.59 3.41 4.33 5.24 6.06
FIP
2.72 3.23 3.78 4.34 4.84
K%
17.2% 19.6% 22.2% 24.8% 27.2%
BB%
7.2% 8.7% 10.3% 11.8% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.69
6
ERA5.06
24
BB%12.9%
13 -26 vs proj
K%22.9%
53
xwOBA allowed0.316
48
Barrel allowed4.7%
88 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
89
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
31
Whiff%29.4%
89 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hill, Jaden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-06: 0.3162026-07-07: 0.3162026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3162026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3162026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.316 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hill, Jaden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Jaden · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 30.5%4-Seam Fastball: 28.9%Sinker: 21.2%Changeup: 19.4% SL30% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 30%FF 29%SI 21%CH 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Jaden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphSinker: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.6 mphSI98 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 30.3% 124 102 limited sample
FB 29.6% 121 100 limited sample
CH 20.3% 83 102 limited sample
SI 19.8% 81 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Slider 25%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.84
K% Δ-0.002
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.7----
Batters Faced138----
K%23.0%15.8% to 30.7%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.5%4.9% to 13.5%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%23.9%18.4% to 29.8%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.140.26 to 1.81+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3080.232 to 0.355+/- 0.062
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.1% to 9.1%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.221.69 to 6.43+/- 2.37
FIP3.702.57 to 5.46+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3540.956 to 1.735+/- 0.389
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

94 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%18.5%
BB%8.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

102 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%19.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel4.1%