Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Ashcraft, Braxton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
20.0% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal5 metrics
86
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.29
ERA rolling p503.56
Observed weight60%
ERA
2.48 2.99 3.56 4.13 4.64
FIP
2.41 2.81 3.26 3.71 4.11
K%
23.0% 24.3% 25.8% 27.2% 28.5%
BB%
5.2% 5.8% 6.6% 7.3% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
78
ERA3.29
64
BB%5.2%
94 +40 vs proj
K%26.7%
80 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
83 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
71
Fastball velo96.9
86
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
52
Whiff%25.5%
70 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-15
Curveball Stuff+104
86
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Slider Stuff+106
79
Sinker Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Braxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.275 2026-06-04: 0.2652026-06-05: 0.2652026-06-06: 0.2652026-06-07: 0.2652026-06-08: 0.2732026-06-09: 0.2732026-06-10: 0.2732026-06-11: 0.2732026-06-12: 0.2732026-06-13: 0.2732026-06-14: 0.2752026-06-15: 0.275 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Braxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.0%Curveball: 24.7%Slider: 24.0%Sinker: 15.4%Split-Finger: 4.9% FF31% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 31%CU 25%SL 24%SI 15%FS 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Braxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.1 mphCU85 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.0 mphSL92 mphSinker: 15% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.8 mphFS92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.0% 333 107 qualified
CB 25.8% 261 104 qualified
SL 25.4% 257 106 qualified
SI 15.7% 159 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ+0.038
Sample89.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.7----
Batters Faced299----
K%22.9%20.0% to 30.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.4%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.3%20.5% to 29.1%+/- 4.3%
HR/90.970.22 to 1.46+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3060.274 to 0.336+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed6.7%3.6% to 9.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.212.33 to 5.33+/- 1.50
FIP3.522.67 to 5.03+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3631.082 to 1.704+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

128 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%21.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel4.8%
vs RHH

165 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%21.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel4.7%