Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Cecconi, Slade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason4.60
ERA current pace4.83
ERA rolling p504.74
Observed weight58%
ERA
3.59 4.13 4.74 5.34 5.88
FIP
3.62 3.98 4.37 4.77 5.13
K%
17.2% 18.4% 19.8% 21.1% 22.3%
BB%
5.4% 6.1% 6.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.83
29
BB%7.5%
68 -16 vs proj
K%19.0%
26
xwOBA allowed0.330
34
Barrel allowed7.5%
50 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
64
Whiff%19.1%
19
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-14
Cutter Stuff+98
14
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Changeup Stuff+103
54
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+97
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cecconi, Slade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-06-03: 0.3372026-06-04: 0.3372026-06-05: 0.3312026-06-06: 0.3312026-06-07: 0.3312026-06-08: 0.3312026-06-09: 0.3312026-06-10: 0.3312026-06-11: 0.3302026-06-12: 0.3302026-06-13: 0.3302026-06-14: 0.330 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cecconi, Slade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.6%Cutter: 26.3%Sinker: 17.7%Curveball: 15.6%Sweeper: 7.0%Changeup: 1.6% FF31% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 31%FC 26%SI 18%CU 16%ST 7%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphCutter: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 75.3 mphCU75 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.2 mphCH81 mphSlider: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 84.2 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.8% 330 106 qualified
FC 27.0% 280 98 qualified
SI 16.8% 174 104 limited sample
CB 15.4% 160 98 limited sample
SL 7.6% 79 97 limited sample
CH 1.4% 15 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 18%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.28
K% Δ-0.008
Sample75.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.5----
Batters Faced596----
K%19.8%16.2% to 25.8%+/- 4.8%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%20.3%17.6% to 24.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.451.01 to 2.28+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3240.277 to 0.360+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed9.0%6.3% to 13.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.553.09 to 6.28+/- 1.59
FIP4.323.35 to 5.46+/- 1.05
WHIP1.2631.036 to 1.512+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

506 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

512 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%19.0%
BB%4.4%
Barrel10.0%