Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Nardi, Andrew

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
28.0% K%
Range
20.3% to 35.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal4 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace5.16
ERA rolling p504.11
Observed weight32%
ERA
2.45 3.24 4.11 4.98 5.76
FIP
2.38 3.02 3.73 4.44 5.08
K%
23.3% 25.8% 28.6% 31.4% 33.9%
BB%
6.7% 8.1% 9.7% 11.3% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA5.16
23
BB%11.6%
21 -28 vs proj
K%28.6%
89
xwOBA allowed0.348
16 -62 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.3%
3 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
48
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
11
Whiff%27.8%
85 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+105
76
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Slider Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nardi, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.348 2026-09-12: 0.3482026-09-13: 0.3482026-09-14: 0.3482026-09-18: 0.3482026-09-19: 0.3482026-09-20: 0.3482026-09-21: 0.3482026-09-22: 0.3482026-09-23: 0.3482026-09-24: 0.3482026-09-25: 0.3482026-09-26: 0.348 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nardi, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nardi, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.2%Sweeper: 25.2%Slider: 13.3%Changeup: 12.1%Sinker: 1.6%Split-Finger: 0.7% FF47% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 47%ST 25%SL 13%CH 12%SI 2%FS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nardi, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphSlider: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.2 mphCH89 mphSinker: 2% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.0 mphFS84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.9% 181 104 limited sample
SL 38.6% 146 104 limited sample
CH 11.6% 44 105 limited sample
SI 1.9% 7 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.226 vs 0.257 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.82
K% Δ+0.006
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.5----
Batters Faced157----
K%28.0%20.3% to 35.0%+/- 7.4%
BB%8.9%5.0% to 13.2%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%25.0%21.1% to 30.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.450.54 to 2.29+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.2900.228 to 0.338+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.9% to 12.6%+/- 3.8%
ERA3.342.18 to 6.58+/- 2.20
FIP3.562.10 to 5.68+/- 1.79
WHIP1.2661.034 to 1.653+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

208 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%29.7%
BB%7.1%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

370 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%25.4%
BB%8.1%
Barrel9.2%