Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Changeup 18%.
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026
Meyer, Max
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team MIA
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.86 |
| ERA current pace | 2.52 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.14 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
ERA
2.14
2.62
3.14
3.67
4.14
FIP
2.59
3.06
3.59
4.11
4.58
K%
21.5%
22.9%
24.5%
26.1%
27.6%
BB%
6.5%
7.2%
8.0%
8.7%
9.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
45
-26 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
30
Fastball velo94.5
54
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
32
K%26.6%
78
+30 vs proj
Whiff%28.0%
83
+25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
51
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
27%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 53.4% | 519 | 105 | qualified |
| FB | 23.5% | 228 | 105 | qualified |
| CH | 11.9% | 116 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 11.2% | 109 | 106 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.63 |
| K% Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 66.3 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 137.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 609 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.9% | 17.2% to 27.7% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 4.8% to 8.6% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 23.9% | 20.4% to 27.7% | +/- 3.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.36 | 0.93 to 2.33 | +/- 0.70 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.319 | 0.264 to 0.330 | +/- 0.033 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.6% to 12.2% | +/- 3.3% |
| ERA | 4.15 | 3.10 to 5.92 | +/- 1.41 |
| FIP | 3.98 | 3.11 to 5.91 | +/- 1.40 |
| WHIP | 1.272 | 1.076 to 1.565 | +/- 0.244 |
vs LHH
299 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |
vs RHH
293 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 19.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 8.4% |