Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Cavalli, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
13.4% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.62
ERA rolling p503.84
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.80 3.29 3.84 4.39 4.88
FIP
2.62 2.95 3.31 3.67 4.00
K%
18.1% 19.6% 21.3% 22.9% 24.5%
BB%
5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.3%
70
Barrel allowed8.0%
46 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
80
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
49
K%24.0%
60 +36 vs proj
Whiff%23.2%
51
xwOBA allowed0.315
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cavalli, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3222026-05-19: 0.3222026-05-21: 0.3222026-05-23: 0.3202026-05-24: 0.3202026-05-25: 0.3202026-05-26: 0.3202026-05-28: 0.3152026-05-29: 0.3152026-05-30: 0.3152026-05-31: 0.3152026-06-01: 0.315 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cavalli, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.0%Knuckle Curve: 29.4%Sinker: 15.7%Sweeper: 11.5%Changeup: 8.9%Cutter: 0.5% MIX FF 34%KC 29%SI 16%ST 11%CH 9%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.2FFKC: HB 0.3, IVB 4.1KCSI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.8SIST: HB -0.7, IVB 3.8STCH: HB -1.3, IVB 2.5CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.5FCPO: HB -0.4, IVB 1.6PO horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.8% 341 104 qualified
CB 30.0% 302 101 qualified
SI 15.7% 158 103 limited sample
SL 11.6% 117 95 limited sample
CH 8.9% 90 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckle Curve 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.61
K% Δ+0.051
Sample62.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.8----
Batters Faced628----
K%19.0%13.4% to 25.0%+/- 5.8%
BB%7.0%4.1% to 9.1%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.9%19.0% to 27.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.480.76 to 2.02+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3070.252 to 0.346+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed6.9%2.3% to 8.2%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.232.68 to 5.62+/- 1.47
FIP4.462.80 to 4.74+/- 0.97
WHIP1.3221.056 to 1.575+/- 0.259
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.219
K%13.7%
BB%5.2%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

136 career BF

xwOBA0.218
K%13.8%
BB%4.4%
Barrel3.2%