Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Cavalli, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
13.4% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal7 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.29
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.13 2.68 3.29 3.90 4.45
FIP
2.56 2.92 3.33 3.73 4.09
K%
23.1% 24.1% 25.3% 26.4% 27.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.0% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
79
ERA3.02
82
BB%6.6%
83
K%27.7%
85 +56 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
73
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo96.6
83
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
36
Whiff%24.3%
62
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+100
32
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Cutter Stuff+108
97
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cavalli, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2982026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2962026-09-20: 0.2962026-09-21: 0.2962026-09-22: 0.2962026-09-23: 0.2962026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.2962026-09-27: 0.296 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cavalli, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.6%Knuckle Curve: 26.5%Sweeper: 14.2%Sinker: 12.6%Changeup: 7.7%Cutter: 6.4% FF33% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 33%KC 27%ST 14%SI 13%CH 8%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphKnuckle Curve: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 86.2 mphKC86 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mphSinker: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.5 mphFC94 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.6 mphCS78 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.1 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.5% 702 103 qualified
CB 28.3% 612 103 qualified
SL 14.7% 317 100 qualified
SI 12.3% 266 104 qualified
CH 8.3% 179 102 limited sample
FC 4.0% 87 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckle Curve 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.21
K% Δ+0.087
Sample172.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.1----
Batters Faced625----
K%19.0%13.4% to 25.0%+/- 5.8%
BB%7.0%4.1% to 9.1%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.9%19.0% to 27.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.480.76 to 2.02+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3070.252 to 0.345+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed6.9%2.3% to 8.2%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.232.68 to 5.62+/- 1.47
FIP4.462.80 to 4.74+/- 0.97
WHIP1.3221.056 to 1.575+/- 0.259
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.219
K%13.7%
BB%5.2%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

136 career BF

xwOBA0.218
K%13.8%
BB%4.4%
Barrel3.2%