Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Ashby, Aaron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
21.6% to 32.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal6 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace3.56
ERA rolling p503.47
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.34 2.87 3.47 4.07 4.60
FIP
2.85 3.14 3.46 3.78 4.07
K%
24.9% 26.5% 28.2% 30.0% 31.6%
BB%
8.6% 9.5% 10.6% 11.7% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
30
ERA3.56
61
BB%12.7%
14 -28 vs proj
K%30.8%
95 +24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.276
86 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
41
Whiff%30.2%
92 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+100
37
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+95
13
Curveball Stuff+101
27
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashby, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.276 2026-07-05: 0.2682026-07-06: 0.2672026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2732026-07-10: 0.2732026-07-11: 0.2712026-07-12: 0.2712026-07-13: 0.2762026-07-14: 0.2762026-07-15: 0.2762026-07-16: 0.276 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashby, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 52.5%Curveball: 19.5%Slider: 14.5%Changeup: 10.7%4-Seam Fastball: 2.8% SI52% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 52%CU 20%SL 15%CH 11%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 52% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.5 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 83.2 mphCU83 mphSlider: 15% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.0 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.6 mphCH92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.6% 348 102 qualified
CB 18.7% 126 101 limited sample
SL 15.4% 104 98 limited sample
CH 10.2% 69 95 limited sample
FB 4.0% 27 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.257 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Curveball 25%, Changeup 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.05
K% Δ+0.053
Sample58.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.1----
Batters Faced288----
K%25.5%21.6% to 32.9%+/- 5.6%
BB%9.2%6.4% to 12.6%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%23.7%21.1% to 29.7%+/- 4.3%
HR/90.940.34 to 1.58+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3000.268 to 0.333+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed6.3%3.1% to 8.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.611.66 to 4.86+/- 1.60
FIP3.472.64 to 4.37+/- 0.87
WHIP1.2871.059 to 1.623+/- 0.282
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

295 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%26.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.3%
vs RHH

805 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%23.6%
BB%8.9%
Barrel4.5%