Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Winn, Keaton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
14.9% to 26.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal4 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.59
ERA current pace3.09
ERA rolling p504.07
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.03 2.99 4.07 5.14 6.10
FIP
2.94 3.37 3.84 4.31 4.74
K%
16.4% 18.4% 20.6% 22.9% 24.8%
BB%
5.6% 6.5% 7.5% 8.6% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.01
90
ERA3.09
74
BB%8.5%
52
K%20.2%
34
xwOBA allowed0.289
73 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
90 +43 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed27.8%
97
Whiff%22.6%
47 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Sinker Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+87
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Winn, Keaton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.289 2026-07-05: 0.2892026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2892026-07-10: 0.2892026-07-11: 0.2892026-07-12: 0.2872026-07-13: 0.2872026-07-14: 0.2892026-07-15: 0.2892026-07-16: 0.289 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Winn, Keaton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Keaton · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 47.5%4-Seam Fastball: 24.6%Sinker: 23.3%Slider: 4.6% FS48% · 89 mphprimary pitch FS 48%FF 25%SI 23%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Keaton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Split-Finger: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 89.5 mphFS89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphSinker: 23% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.0% 90 103 limited sample
SI 43.9% 79 108 limited sample
SL 6.1% 11 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 44%, 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Sinker 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.81
K% Δ-0.006
Sample32.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.3----
Batters Faced268----
K%20.8%14.9% to 26.8%+/- 6.0%
BB%7.8%5.1% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%24.7%20.5% to 32.1%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.270.79 to 2.18+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3170.274 to 0.372+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 13.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.902.34 to 7.86+/- 2.76
FIP4.062.72 to 5.15+/- 1.21
WHIP1.2280.981 to 1.626+/- 0.323
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

217 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%18.1%
BB%7.7%
Barrel10.3%
vs RHH

272 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%18.4%
BB%5.8%
Barrel9.5%