Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Marinaccio, Ron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
19.4% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal5 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.46
ERA current pace4.89
ERA rolling p504.12
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.60 3.32 4.12 4.92 5.64
FIP
3.49 3.95 4.47 4.98 5.44
K%
18.5% 20.3% 22.4% 24.4% 26.3%
BB%
6.8% 8.0% 9.4% 10.7% 11.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
28
ERA4.89
27
BB%8.8%
47
K%19.1%
28 -47 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
26 -46 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
50
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
46
Whiff%23.1%
51
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Changeup Stuff+94
10
Cutter Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Marinaccio, Ron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.339 2026-07-06: 0.3342026-07-07: 0.3342026-07-08: 0.3312026-07-09: 0.3352026-07-10: 0.3452026-07-11: 0.3452026-07-12: 0.3402026-07-13: 0.3402026-07-14: 0.3392026-07-15: 0.3392026-07-16: 0.3392026-07-17: 0.339 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Marinaccio, Ron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Marinaccio, Ron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.9%Changeup: 30.6%Cutter: 19.2%Sweeper: 6.3% FF44% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 31%FC 19%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Marinaccio, Ron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 31% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.7 mphCH82 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.6 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.8% 270 101 qualified
CH 30.7% 194 94 limited sample
FC 20.4% 129 104 limited sample
SL 6.0% 38 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Changeup 24%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.47
K% Δ-0.070
Sample47.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.2----
Batters Faced141----
K%26.2%19.4% to 32.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%10.0%5.9% to 14.4%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%24.9%18.7% to 30.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.100.62 to 1.89+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.2900.215 to 0.344+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.2% to 12.7%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.420.80 to 5.10+/- 2.15
FIP3.742.63 to 5.37+/- 1.37
WHIP1.2640.930 to 1.530+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

308 career BF

xwOBA0.237
K%22.9%
BB%10.5%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

303 career BF

xwOBA0.227
K%23.1%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.2%