Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Changeup 24%, Cutter 13%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
Marinaccio, Ron
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SD
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.46 |
| ERA current pace | 4.07 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.68 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
ERA
2.10
2.85
3.68
4.51
5.26
FIP
2.89
3.37
3.90
4.44
4.92
K%
19.0%
21.2%
23.5%
25.9%
28.1%
BB%
5.8%
7.2%
8.8%
10.3%
11.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.9%
76
+43 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
40
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
65
K%20.6%
36
-39 vs proj
Whiff%25.4%
67
xwOBA allowed0.316
46
-23 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+98
25
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
45%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 44.9% | 238 | 101 | qualified |
| CH | 29.6% | 157 | 93 | limited sample |
| FC | 20.0% | 106 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 5.5% | 29 | 107 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.65 |
| K% Δ | -0.055 |
| Sample | 32.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 144 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.2% | 19.4% to 32.6% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 10.0% | 5.9% to 14.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 24.9% | 18.7% to 30.1% | +/- 5.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.10 | 0.62 to 1.89 | +/- 0.64 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.291 | 0.215 to 0.344 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 4.2% to 12.7% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 3.42 | 0.80 to 5.10 | +/- 2.15 |
| FIP | 3.74 | 2.63 to 5.37 | +/- 1.37 |
| WHIP | 1.264 | 0.930 to 1.530 | +/- 0.300 |
vs LHH
308 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 10.5% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
vs RHH
303 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.227 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |