Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Mattson, Isaac

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.40
ERA rolling p504.36
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.90 3.59 4.36 5.12 5.81
FIP
2.72 3.43 4.22 5.01 5.72
K%
17.8% 19.8% 22.0% 24.2% 26.2%
BB%
7.4% 8.7% 10.2% 11.6% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
29
ERA4.40
40
BB%10.6%
28
K%19.7%
31 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.371
7 -40 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -42 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed45.9%
9
Whiff%18.3%
13 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Changeup Stuff+95
11
Curveball Stuff+105
97
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Slider Stuff+84
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 73%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mattson, Isaac · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.371 2026-07-06: 0.3852026-07-07: 0.3832026-07-08: 0.3832026-07-09: 0.3832026-07-10: 0.3772026-07-11: 0.3772026-07-12: 0.3772026-07-13: 0.3732026-07-14: 0.3702026-07-15: 0.3702026-07-16: 0.3712026-07-17: 0.371 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mattson, Isaac · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mattson, Isaac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 72.9%Slider: 11.1%Changeup: 9.5%Sweeper: 6.5% FF73% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 73%SL 11%CH 10%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mattson, Isaac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 73% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 78.8% 298 101 qualified
CH 9.5% 36 95 limited sample
SL 6.1% 23 84 limited sample
CB 5.6% 21 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.274 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 78%, Changeup 12%, Slider 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.02
K% Δ-0.025
Sample32.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.9----
Batters Faced140----
K%22.2%16.8% to 29.2%+/- 6.2%
BB%10.1%6.8% to 14.8%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%21.8%16.6% to 26.8%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.190.32 to 1.79+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3170.264 to 0.348+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.5% to 11.3%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.381.67 to 5.65+/- 1.99
FIP4.102.98 to 7.09+/- 2.05
WHIP1.3840.927 to 1.609+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

123 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%19.6%
BB%11.2%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%20.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.1%