Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Vest, Will

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.9% K%
Range
17.6% to 33.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.24
ERA current pace6.08
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.95 3.54 4.20 4.86 5.45
FIP
2.36 2.78 3.25 3.72 4.15
K%
18.6% 21.1% 24.0% 26.8% 29.3%
BB%
4.7% 5.8% 7.1% 8.3% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
28
ERA6.08
10
BB%8.1%
59 -23 vs proj
K%23.6%
58
xwOBA allowed0.307
57
Barrel allowed4.9%
86
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
70
Whiff%24.4%
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+97
15
Slider Stuff+102
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vest, Will · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.307 2026-07-05: 0.3072026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.3072026-07-08: 0.3072026-07-09: 0.3072026-07-10: 0.3072026-07-11: 0.3072026-07-12: 0.3072026-07-13: 0.3072026-07-14: 0.3072026-07-15: 0.3072026-07-16: 0.307 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Vest, Will · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vest, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Slider: 29.2%Sinker: 15.4%Changeup: 11.4% FF44% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 29%SI 15%CH 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vest, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSlider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSinker: 15% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.8% 176 109 limited sample
SL 27.9% 112 102 limited sample
SI 16.9% 68 97 limited sample
CH 11.4% 46 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 24%, Sinker 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.86
K% Δ-0.013
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.6----
Batters Faced172----
K%24.9%17.6% to 33.0%+/- 7.7%
BB%6.6%4.5% to 10.8%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%23.6%18.0% to 29.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/90.850.36 to 1.61+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.2920.251 to 0.339+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed6.2%3.0% to 9.4%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.222.44 to 5.80+/- 1.68
FIP3.172.14 to 4.54+/- 1.20
WHIP1.1821.011 to 1.602+/- 0.295
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

586 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%22.7%
BB%7.7%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

753 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%23.0%
BB%5.0%
Barrel4.8%