Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Sears, Jp

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
15.3% to 25.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.42
ERA current pace4.68
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight37%
ERA
3.49 3.98 4.52 5.06 5.55
FIP
4.14 4.48 4.86 5.24 5.58
K%
15.5% 17.1% 18.9% 20.7% 22.4%
BB%
5.6% 6.3% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
46
ERA4.68
34
BB%7.7%
68
K%17.5%
17
xwOBA allowed0.345
17
Barrel allowed8.7%
31
Fastball velo92.7
23
Hard-hit allowed45.2%
8
Whiff%18.7%
17
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Sinker Stuff+107
86
Slider Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sears, Jp · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.345 2026-09-12: 0.3452026-09-13: 0.3452026-09-14: 0.3452026-09-18: 0.3452026-09-19: 0.3452026-09-20: 0.3452026-09-21: 0.3452026-09-22: 0.3452026-09-23: 0.3452026-09-24: 0.3452026-09-25: 0.3452026-09-26: 0.345 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sears, Jp · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sears, Jp · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.4%Changeup: 20.8%Sinker: 14.7%Sweeper: 14.4%Slider: 14.0%Cutter: 1.7% FF34% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 34%CH 21%SI 15%ST 14%SL 14%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sears, Jp · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.0 mphCH85 mphSinker: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 79.7 mphST80 mphSlider: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.2 mphSL81 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.6% 72 101 limited sample
SL 30.7% 62 98 limited sample
CH 22.8% 46 99 limited sample
SI 7.4% 15 107 limited sample
FC 3.5% 7 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.277 vs 0.306 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 27%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.26
K% Δ-0.013
Sample32.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.0----
Batters Faced618----
K%18.7%15.3% to 25.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%6.7%5.0% to 8.9%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.6%16.9% to 23.8%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.491.11 to 2.39+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3300.279 to 0.339+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.9%7.2% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.423.18 to 6.01+/- 1.42
FIP4.603.85 to 5.83+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3351.066 to 1.544+/- 0.239
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

473 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%20.1%
BB%5.8%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

2002 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%18.1%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.7%