Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Sweeper 23%, Changeup 22%.
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026
Poulin, Pj
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team WSH
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 30
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.04 |
| ERA current pace | 3.28 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.80 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
1.86
2.78
3.80
4.81
5.73
FIP
3.19
3.72
4.32
4.91
5.44
K%
15.4%
17.7%
20.2%
22.8%
25.1%
BB%
7.6%
9.1%
10.9%
12.6%
14.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.9%
7
-29 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.2%
8
-64 vs proj
Fastball velo89.7
3
Hard-hit allowed52.7%
1
K%19.1%
25
Whiff%15.5%
4
-51 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.378
7
-47 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
35%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 35.1% | 159 | 96 | limited sample |
| FB | 31.1% | 141 | 99 | limited sample |
| SI | 18.3% | 83 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 15.5% | 70 | 100 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.87 |
| K% Δ | -0.018 |
| Sample | 27.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 134 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.0% | 14.2% to 28.0% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 5.5% to 14.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| Whiff% | 23.6% | 15.7% to 27.4% | +/- 5.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 0.26 to 1.75 | +/- 0.75 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.229 to 0.363 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.1% | 1.1% to 8.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.15 | 1.07 to 6.24 | +/- 2.58 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 2.27 to 5.28 | +/- 1.50 |
| WHIP | 1.368 | 1.001 to 1.726 | +/- 0.363 |
vs LHH
48 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHH
77 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 17.4% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |