Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Sweeper 23%, Changeup 22%.
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026
Poulin, Pj
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team WSH
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
39
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.04 |
| ERA current pace | 2.70 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.50 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
ERA
1.64
2.52
3.50
4.48
5.36
FIP
3.08
3.59
4.16
4.73
5.24
K%
15.5%
17.6%
19.9%
22.2%
24.3%
BB%
7.8%
9.3%
10.8%
12.4%
13.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
65
ERA2.70
83
BB%13.0%
12
-24 vs proj
K%18.5%
23
-16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.353
14
-40 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.2%
18
-56 vs proj
Fastball velo89.7
3
Hard-hit allowed46.3%
8
Whiff%16.4%
6
-50 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+97
20
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
36%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 35.5% | 166 | 97 | limited sample |
| FB | 30.8% | 144 | 100 | limited sample |
| SI | 18.8% | 88 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 15.0% | 70 | 100 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.45 |
| K% Δ | -0.025 |
| Sample | 39.0 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 133 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.0% | 14.2% to 28.0% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 5.5% to 14.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| Whiff% | 23.6% | 15.7% to 27.4% | +/- 5.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 0.26 to 1.75 | +/- 0.75 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.229 to 0.363 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.1% | 1.1% to 8.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.15 | 1.07 to 6.24 | +/- 2.58 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 2.27 to 5.28 | +/- 1.50 |
| WHIP | 1.368 | 1.001 to 1.726 | +/- 0.363 |
vs LHH
48 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHH
77 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 17.4% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |