Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Faucher, Calvin

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal6 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace3.34
ERA rolling p503.52
Observed weight55%
ERA
1.94 2.69 3.52 4.35 5.09
FIP
2.49 2.91 3.37 3.83 4.25
K%
20.8% 22.4% 24.3% 26.1% 27.7%
BB%
8.9% 9.9% 11.1% 12.2% 13.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
62
ERA3.34
75
BB%12.2%
16 -27 vs proj
K%24.8%
69
xwOBA allowed0.293
75
Barrel allowed4.4%
90 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
77
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
55
Whiff%23.9%
60 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Curveball Stuff+103
55
Fastball Stuff+93
7
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Slider Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Faucher, Calvin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.293 2026-09-13: 0.2912026-09-14: 0.2912026-09-18: 0.2952026-09-19: 0.2952026-09-20: 0.2952026-09-21: 0.2942026-09-22: 0.2942026-09-23: 0.2952026-09-24: 0.2932026-09-25: 0.2932026-09-26: 0.2932026-09-27: 0.293 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Faucher, Calvin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Faucher, Calvin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 32.2%Sweeper: 25.1%Sinker: 15.8%Curveball: 13.3%4-Seam Fastball: 10.8%Slider: 2.8% FC32% · 93 mphprimary pitch FC 32%ST 25%SI 16%CU 13%FF 11%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Faucher, Calvin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.2 mphFC93 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphST88 mphSinker: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 85.5 mphCU86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 91.2 mphSL91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 35.3% 242 101 qualified
SL 25.9% 178 106 limited sample
SI 15.6% 107 95 limited sample
CB 13.4% 92 103 limited sample
FB 9.8% 67 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 37%, Sweeper 18%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.48
K% Δ+0.013
Sample69.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.3----
Batters Faced164----
K%23.6%17.4% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.5%6.8% to 14.1%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%21.7%18.2% to 27.8%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.110.52 to 2.00+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.372+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.2% to 10.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.821.92 to 6.36+/- 2.22
FIP3.932.81 to 5.29+/- 1.24
WHIP1.2611.027 to 1.747+/- 0.360
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

326 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%20.5%
BB%10.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

422 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%21.3%
BB%8.4%
Barrel6.4%