Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Faucher, Calvin

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace3.92
ERA rolling p503.79
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.11 2.91 3.79 4.67 5.47
FIP
2.90 3.34 3.83 4.32 4.77
K%
18.9% 21.2% 23.7% 26.2% 28.5%
BB%
9.2% 10.5% 12.1% 13.6% 15.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%17.6%
1 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
84 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
26
K%24.1%
61
Whiff%23.8%
58 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
40 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Faucher, Calvin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.3322026-05-23: 0.3322026-05-24: 0.3322026-05-25: 0.3262026-05-26: 0.3262026-05-28: 0.3262026-05-29: 0.3262026-05-30: 0.3262026-05-31: 0.3262026-06-01: 0.328 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Faucher, Calvin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Faucher, Calvin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 45.3%Sweeper: 19.7%Curveball: 15.2%Sinker: 12.1%4-Seam Fastball: 6.2%Slider: 1.7% MIX FC 45%ST 20%CU 15%SI 12%FF 6%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Faucher, Calvin · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.4FCST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.1STCU: HB 0.7, IVB 4.3CUSI: HB 0.4, IVB 2.0SIFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB 0.0, IVB 3.5SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 46.0% 183 99 limited sample
SL 20.9% 83 95 limited sample
CB 15.1% 60 101 limited sample
SI 12.3% 49 106 limited sample
FB 5.8% 23 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 37%, Sweeper 18%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ+0.005
Sample23.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.3----
Batters Faced169----
K%23.6%17.4% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.5%6.8% to 14.1%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%21.7%18.2% to 27.8%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.130.52 to 2.00+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.372+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.2% to 10.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.891.92 to 6.36+/- 2.22
FIP3.952.81 to 5.28+/- 1.23
WHIP1.2611.027 to 1.747+/- 0.360
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

326 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%20.5%
BB%10.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

422 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%21.3%
BB%8.4%
Barrel6.4%