Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Faucher, Calvin

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace4.31
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.40 3.15 3.98 4.82 5.57
FIP
2.75 3.17 3.63 4.10 4.51
K%
19.1% 21.0% 23.2% 25.3% 27.3%
BB%
9.3% 10.4% 11.8% 13.1% 14.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
23
ERA4.31
42
BB%14.6%
5 -33 vs proj
K%22.7%
52
xwOBA allowed0.329
35 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
83 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
76
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
29
Whiff%21.7%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+102
46
Cutter Stuff+99
29
Fastball Stuff+88
2
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Sinker Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+99
28
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Faucher, Calvin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-07: 0.3202026-07-08: 0.3202026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3252026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3252026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3292026-07-17: 0.3292026-07-18: 0.329 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Faucher, Calvin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Faucher, Calvin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 41.9%Sweeper: 21.0%Curveball: 15.6%Sinker: 14.2%4-Seam Fastball: 5.6%Slider: 1.7% FC42% · 93 mphprimary pitch FC 42%ST 21%CU 16%SI 14%FF 6%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Faucher, Calvin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphSweeper: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.8 mphST88 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 85.5 mphCU85 mphSinker: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphSlider: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 45.4% 196 99 limited sample
SL 21.5% 93 99 limited sample
CB 15.3% 66 102 limited sample
SI 12.5% 54 101 limited sample
FB 5.3% 23 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 37%, Sweeper 18%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.45
K% Δ-0.009
Sample41.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.1----
Batters Faced168----
K%23.6%17.4% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.5%6.8% to 14.1%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%21.7%18.2% to 27.8%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.110.52 to 2.00+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.372+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.2% to 10.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.861.92 to 6.36+/- 2.22
FIP3.952.81 to 5.28+/- 1.23
WHIP1.2611.027 to 1.747+/- 0.360
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

326 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%20.5%
BB%10.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

422 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%21.3%
BB%8.4%
Barrel6.4%