Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Hoffman, Nolan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
1.9% to 24.6%
Live Δ
--
Team PHI Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.62
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p504.46
Observed weight8%
ERA
1.57 2.94 4.46 5.99 7.36
FIP
2.17 3.23 4.40 5.58 6.64
K%
5.4% 10.4% 15.9% 21.4% 26.4%
BB%
2.5% 5.2% 8.1% 11.1% 13.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2025Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hoffman, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Nolan · 2025 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 53.8%Curveball: 26.9%Changeup: 11.5%Cutter: 7.7% MIX SI 54%CU 27%CH 12%FC 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Nolan · 2025 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.3, IVB 2.1SICU: HB 0.7, IVB 4.3CUCH: HB -1.3, IVB 3.3CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.2FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 34.1% 28 101 limited sample
FB 34.1% 28 100 limited sample
SI 14.6% 12 98 limited sample
SL 13.4% 11 98 limited sample
CH 3.7% 3 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 54%, Curveball 27%, Changeup 12%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings28.3----
Batters Faced130----
K%22.0%1.9% to 24.6%+/- 11.4%
BB%9.1%1.1% to 13.2%+/- 6.0%
Whiff%22.6%2.1% to 26.7%+/- 12.3%
HR/91.170.00 to 1.49+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3040.001 to 0.318+/- 0.158
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 8.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.071.80 to 8.07+/- 3.14
FIP4.000.89 to 5.73+/- 2.42
WHIP1.3520.474 to 1.797+/- 0.661
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

12 career BF

xwOBA0.025
K%4.0%
BB%4.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

9 career BF

xwOBA0.024
K%4.2%
BB%3.5%
Barrel0.1%