Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Hurter, Brant

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
18.3% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
17
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.79
ERA current pace2.94
ERA rolling p503.46
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.42 2.91 3.46 4.00 4.49
FIP
3.26 3.55 3.88 4.22 4.51
K%
16.9% 18.3% 20.0% 21.6% 23.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 9.5% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.04
90
ERA2.94
84
BB%9.8%
40 -26 vs proj
K%17.0%
15 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
73 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.8%
98 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
14
Hard-hit allowed33.9%
83
Whiff%18.5%
16 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Sinker Stuff+98
22
Changeup Stuff+92
7
Fastball Stuff+89
3
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Slider Stuff+99
28
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 55%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hurter, Brant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.2952026-09-18: 0.2872026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2932026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3002026-09-24: 0.3002026-09-25: 0.3002026-09-26: 0.3002026-09-27: 0.296 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hurter, Brant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurter, Brant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 55.3%Sweeper: 29.9%Changeup: 10.4%4-Seam Fastball: 4.5% SI55% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 55%ST 30%CH 10%FF 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurter, Brant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 55% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.6 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 56.3% 264 98 qualified
SL 29.6% 139 99 limited sample
CH 10.0% 47 92 limited sample
FB 4.1% 19 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.256 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 52%, Sweeper 32%, Changeup 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.28
K% Δ-0.045
Sample38.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.2----
Batters Faced294----
K%21.5%18.3% to 27.2%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.8%5.7% to 10.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.1%19.3% to 27.1%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.240.71 to 1.86+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3100.271 to 0.340+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed6.6%3.3% to 8.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.222.24 to 5.10+/- 1.43
FIP3.633.33 to 5.07+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3781.114 to 1.645+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

220 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%21.4%
BB%6.8%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

298 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%20.1%
BB%7.1%
Barrel5.3%