Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Hurter, Brant

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
18.3% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
14
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.79
ERA current pace2.84
ERA rolling p503.49
Observed weight32%
ERA
2.41 2.92 3.49 4.05 4.56
FIP
3.34 3.65 4.00 4.34 4.65
K%
17.3% 18.9% 20.7% 22.4% 24.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.5% 8.7% 9.8% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
91
ERA2.84
80
BB%10.8%
26 -38 vs proj
K%18.0%
19 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.304
60
Barrel allowed3.9%
93 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
17
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
76
Whiff%18.0%
11 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Sinker Stuff+98
20
Changeup Stuff+94
10
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Slider Stuff+97
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hurter, Brant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.304 2026-07-06: 0.3042026-07-07: 0.3042026-07-08: 0.3042026-07-09: 0.3042026-07-10: 0.3042026-07-11: 0.3042026-07-12: 0.3042026-07-13: 0.3042026-07-14: 0.3042026-07-15: 0.3042026-07-16: 0.3042026-07-17: 0.304 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hurter, Brant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurter, Brant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 58.2%Sweeper: 27.0%Changeup: 10.7%4-Seam Fastball: 4.1% SI58% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 58%ST 27%CH 11%FF 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurter, Brant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 58% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 58.6% 211 98 qualified
SL 26.9% 97 97 limited sample
CH 11.1% 40 94 limited sample
FB 3.3% 12 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.256 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 52%, Sweeper 32%, Changeup 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.38
K% Δ-0.035
Sample28.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.1----
Batters Faced289----
K%21.5%18.3% to 27.2%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.8%5.7% to 10.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.1%19.3% to 27.1%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.240.71 to 1.86+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3100.271 to 0.340+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed6.6%3.3% to 8.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.222.24 to 5.10+/- 1.43
FIP3.633.33 to 5.07+/- 0.87
WHIP1.3791.113 to 1.645+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

220 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%21.4%
BB%6.8%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHH

298 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%20.1%
BB%7.1%
Barrel5.3%