Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Garcia, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.7% K%
Range
20.2% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal4 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.47
ERA current pace2.19
ERA rolling p503.16
Observed weight24%
ERA
1.63 2.35 3.16 3.96 4.69
FIP
2.84 3.21 3.63 4.04 4.42
K%
18.7% 21.2% 23.9% 26.7% 29.2%
BB%
6.6% 7.9% 9.3% 10.7% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
87
ERA2.19
94
BB%11.7%
21 -37 vs proj
K%22.1%
49 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
75
Barrel allowed5.9%
76
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed31.4%
93
Whiff%25.2%
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+105
72
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Slider Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Garcia, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-09-26: 0.292 2026-09-26 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Garcia, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.8%Changeup: 34.7%Slider: 19.5% FF46% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 46%CH 35%SL 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.8% 104 102 limited sample
CH 33.5% 76 105 limited sample
SL 20.7% 47 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Changeup 29%, Slider 27%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.39
K% Δ-0.026
Sample20.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.7----
Batters Faced164----
K%24.7%20.2% to 33.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%8.3%5.5% to 12.1%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%25.6%21.7% to 31.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.190.47 to 1.93+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2980.251 to 0.327+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed6.5%2.9% to 10.2%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.582.08 to 5.93+/- 1.92
FIP3.532.47 to 4.46+/- 1.00
WHIP1.2181.033 to 1.594+/- 0.281
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

274 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%25.4%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

421 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%24.2%
BB%7.9%
Barrel6.0%