Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Dreyer, Jack

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.2% K%
Range
19.9% to 29.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace2.08
ERA rolling p503.34
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.20 2.74 3.34 3.94 4.48
FIP
2.40 2.87 3.40 3.92 4.39
K%
21.6% 23.5% 25.6% 27.7% 29.5%
BB%
5.9% 7.0% 8.2% 9.4% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.4%
69
Barrel allowed5.2%
81 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
30
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
48
K%28.7%
86 +32 vs proj
Whiff%25.4%
68 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.265
87 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dreyer, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2652026-05-19: 0.2652026-05-21: 0.2652026-05-23: 0.2652026-05-24: 0.2652026-05-25: 0.2652026-05-26: 0.2652026-05-28: 0.2652026-05-29: 0.2652026-05-30: 0.2652026-05-31: 0.2652026-06-01: 0.265 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dreyer, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dreyer, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.3%Slider: 41.0%Curveball: 9.7% MIX FF 49%SL 41%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dreyer, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.0FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5SLCU: HB 0.3, IVB 5.0CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.0% 171 108 limited sample
SL 40.4% 138 101 limited sample
CB 9.6% 33 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.227 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Curveball 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.81
K% Δ+0.055
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.7----
Batters Faced290----
K%23.2%19.9% to 29.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.0%5.7% to 11.6%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%23.2%20.8% to 29.2%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.150.21 to 1.53+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3000.260 to 0.331+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.6%4.3% to 10.2%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.892.46 to 5.42+/- 1.48
FIP3.902.65 to 5.22+/- 1.28
WHIP1.2200.989 to 1.557+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

116 career BF

xwOBA0.227
K%21.7%
BB%7.4%
Barrel4.1%
vs RHH

216 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%21.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel5.8%