Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Walker, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
18.6% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
16
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal3 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.12
ERA current pace7.52
ERA rolling p504.68
Observed weight35%
ERA
3.39 4.00 4.68 5.37 5.98
FIP
3.12 3.51 3.94 4.37 4.75
K%
16.2% 18.9% 21.9% 24.8% 27.5%
BB%
6.4% 7.6% 9.0% 10.4% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
5
ERA7.52
2
BB%11.4%
21 -49 vs proj
K%15.9%
10 -52 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
40 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
71
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
75
Whiff%13.2%
1 -59 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Sinker Stuff+101
44
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Slider Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 68%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Walker, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.324 2026-07-05: 0.3142026-07-06: 0.3142026-07-07: 0.3142026-07-08: 0.3142026-07-09: 0.3092026-07-10: 0.3242026-07-11: 0.3242026-07-12: 0.3242026-07-13: 0.3242026-07-14: 0.3242026-07-15: 0.3242026-07-16: 0.324 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Walker, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 13%13%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Walker, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 67.7%Slider: 29.6%4-Seam Fastball: 2.8% SI68% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 68%SL 30%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Walker, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 68% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphSlider: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.0 mphSL83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 69.4% 215 101 qualified
SL 30.0% 93 102 limited sample
FB 0.6% 2 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 62%, Slider 38%, Changeup 0%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+4.44
K% Δ-0.085
Sample28.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.8----
Batters Faced172----
K%24.4%18.6% to 35.5%+/- 8.5%
BB%7.4%4.4% to 11.5%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%24.4%18.4% to 30.7%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.070.45 to 1.80+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2940.242 to 0.346+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed6.7%3.5% to 10.0%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.082.13 to 5.66+/- 1.76
FIP3.082.36 to 4.58+/- 1.11
WHIP1.1630.995 to 1.625+/- 0.315
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

377 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%25.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel6.1%
vs RHH

496 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%24.4%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.4%