Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Mejia, Juan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.9% K%
Range
20.6% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.74
ERA rolling p504.74
Observed weight45%
ERA
3.38 4.02 4.74 5.46 6.10
FIP
3.11 3.51 3.95 4.39 4.78
K%
20.0% 21.9% 24.0% 26.1% 28.0%
BB%
8.1% 9.4% 10.7% 12.0% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
14
ERA5.74
14
BB%11.3%
21
K%23.2%
55
xwOBA allowed0.317
46
Barrel allowed4.0%
92 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
41
Whiff%26.0%
73
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mejia, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.317 2026-07-06: 0.3182026-07-07: 0.3182026-07-08: 0.3182026-07-09: 0.3182026-07-10: 0.3182026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3172026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3172026-07-15: 0.3172026-07-16: 0.3172026-07-17: 0.317 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mejia, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.9%Sweeper: 37.5%Sinker: 7.3%Changeup: 3.3%Slider: 2.9% FF49% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 49%ST 38%SI 7%CH 3%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.4 mphST84 mphSinker: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.2 mphCH93 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 266 99 qualified
SL 43.2% 256 102 qualified
SI 7.9% 47 103 limited sample
CH 4.0% 24 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 67%, Sweeper 33%, Changeup 0%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.55
K% Δ-0.017
Sample42.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.3----
Batters Faced160----
K%24.9%20.6% to 33.6%+/- 6.5%
BB%9.6%6.0% to 14.0%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.2%21.5% to 32.9%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.210.63 to 1.85+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3040.262 to 0.341+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.8% to 10.3%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.292.63 to 6.46+/- 1.92
FIP3.913.01 to 5.36+/- 1.17
WHIP1.3631.073 to 1.695+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

126 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.3%
BB%10.3%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.241
K%25.4%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.4%