Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Grove, Michael

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
17.8% to 28.6%
Live Δ
--
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace5.14
ERA rolling p504.31
Observed weight10%
ERA
2.49 3.35 4.31 5.27 6.13
FIP
3.98 4.20 4.44 4.68 4.90
K%
17.8% 20.1% 22.7% 25.4% 27.7%
BB%
3.4% 4.6% 5.9% 7.1% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Insufficient sample

Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.

Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher.

Stuff+ pending

No current Stuff+ row is available for this pitcher in the latest daily scoring artifact. The profile keeps this block visible so missing coverage is explicit rather than silent.

Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Grove, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Grove, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 38.2%Sinker: 20.2%4-Seam Fastball: 18.0%Cutter: 15.7%Knuckle Curve: 7.9% SL38% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 38%SI 20%FF 18%FC 16%KC 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Grove, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Slider: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphSinker: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphCutter: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphKnuckle Curve: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 76.2 mphKC76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.4----
Batters Faced294----
K%22.7%17.8% to 28.6%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.0%4.7% to 10.2%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%24.1%20.0% to 29.3%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.491.00 to 2.42+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3170.269 to 0.345+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.293.09 to 7.13+/- 2.02
FIP4.083.16 to 4.19+/- 0.51
WHIP1.2381.056 to 1.616+/- 0.280
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

326 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

385 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.9%
BB%5.8%
Barrel8.5%