Melton, Troy
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.89 |
| ERA current pace | 1.59 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.49 |
| Observed weight | 17% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 58.6% | 41 | 100 | limited sample |
| SL | 25.7% | 18 | 106 | limited sample |
| SI | 8.6% | 6 | 105 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.1% | 5 | 102 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 275 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.6% | 17.5% to 29.2% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 6.0% to 11.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 19.3% to 28.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.43 | 1.06 to 2.20 | +/- 0.57 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.336 | 0.280 to 0.351 | +/- 0.036 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 5.9% to 12.4% | +/- 3.3% |
| ERA | 4.25 | 2.13 to 5.32 | +/- 1.59 |
| FIP | 4.64 | 3.25 to 5.79 | +/- 1.27 |
| WHIP | 1.374 | 0.894 to 1.582 | +/- 0.344 |
118 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 17.4% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |
99 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 8.8% |