Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Melton, Troy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
17.5% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace2.75
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight66%
ERA
1.95 2.51 3.14 3.76 4.32
FIP
3.23 3.68 4.18 4.67 5.12
K%
18.1% 19.3% 20.6% 21.9% 23.1%
BB%
6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA2.75
87
BB%7.9%
65 +16 vs proj
K%20.0%
35
xwOBA allowed0.302
64 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
78
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
51
Whiff%21.7%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Cutter Stuff+102
60
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Slider Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Melton, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-09-13: 0.2972026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2992026-09-19: 0.2992026-09-20: 0.2992026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.3022026-09-27: 0.302 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Melton, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.8%Cutter: 21.8%Slider: 17.1%Changeup: 11.3%Sinker: 9.1%Curveball: 7.9% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 22%SL 17%CH 11%SI 9%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.3 mphCH89 mphSinker: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 79.5 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.1% 284 104 qualified
FC 21.7% 181 102 limited sample
SL 17.0% 142 104 limited sample
SI 10.1% 84 101 limited sample
CB 9.7% 81 102 limited sample
CH 7.4% 62 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.272 vs 0.251 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 21%, Sinker 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.50
K% Δ+0.004
Sample113.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.6----
Batters Faced279----
K%19.6%17.5% to 29.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%9.0%6.0% to 11.4%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.1%19.3% to 28.7%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.431.06 to 2.20+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3360.280 to 0.351+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.9% to 12.4%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.252.13 to 5.32+/- 1.59
FIP4.643.25 to 5.79+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3750.894 to 1.582+/- 0.344
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

118 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%17.4%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%20.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel8.8%