Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Melton, Troy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.5% K%
Range
17.5% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace1.82
ERA rolling p502.98
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.84 2.38 2.98 3.58 4.11
FIP
3.40 3.83 4.31 4.78 5.21
K%
18.1% 19.8% 21.8% 23.7% 25.5%
BB%
5.6% 6.4% 7.3% 8.3% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.82
98
ERA1.82
97
BB%5.8%
89 +45 vs proj
K%21.7%
45 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.269
89 +61 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
77 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
66
Whiff%21.8%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Cutter Stuff+101
40
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Melton, Troy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.269 2026-07-06: 0.2742026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2742026-07-10: 0.2692026-07-11: 0.2692026-07-12: 0.2692026-07-13: 0.2692026-07-14: 0.2692026-07-15: 0.2692026-07-16: 0.2692026-07-17: 0.269 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Melton, Troy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.4%Cutter: 20.1%Slider: 18.9%Split-Finger: 8.9%Sinker: 8.9%Curveball: 5.7% FF37% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 37%FC 20%SL 19%FS 9%SI 9%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Melton, Troy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphSlider: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 9% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.5 mphFS88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.3% 98 101 limited sample
FC 21.7% 48 101 limited sample
SL 14.5% 32 102 limited sample
SI 11.8% 26 105 limited sample
CB 7.7% 17 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.272 vs 0.251 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 21%, Sinker 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.43
K% Δ+0.022
Sample49.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.4----
Batters Faced274----
K%19.5%17.5% to 29.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%9.0%6.0% to 11.4%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.1%19.3% to 28.7%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.431.06 to 2.20+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3360.280 to 0.351+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.9% to 12.4%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.252.13 to 5.32+/- 1.59
FIP4.643.25 to 5.79+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3740.894 to 1.582+/- 0.344
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

118 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%17.4%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%20.7%
BB%6.1%
Barrel8.8%