Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Alvarez, Andrew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
14.2% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.35
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.41 3.05 3.76 4.47 5.11
FIP
2.55 3.03 3.56 4.09 4.57
K%
19.9% 21.2% 22.6% 23.9% 25.2%
BB%
8.5% 9.3% 10.1% 10.9% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA3.35
73
BB%10.7%
28 -19 vs proj
K%24.0%
66 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
48 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
16
Hard-hit allowed40.7%
33
Whiff%24.6%
65 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Changeup Stuff+99
29
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Slider Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarez, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.315 2026-09-12: 0.3212026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3102026-09-22: 0.3102026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.315 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarez, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 32.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Slider: 20.2%Sinker: 14.3%Changeup: 5.4% CU32% · 83 mphprimary pitch CU 32%FF 28%SL 20%SI 14%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Curveball: 32% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.2 mphSL84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.7 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 32.3% 324 103 qualified
FB 27.4% 275 98 qualified
SL 19.6% 197 104 limited sample
SI 13.9% 139 100 limited sample
CH 6.8% 68 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 29%, Curveball 27%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.16
K% Δ+0.032
Sample110.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.3----
Batters Faced270----
K%20.8%14.2% to 26.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.2%6.0% to 11.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%20.9%14.1% to 25.9%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.350.14 to 1.89+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3530.230 to 0.359+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed8.1%1.9% to 9.0%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.511.80 to 5.43+/- 1.81
FIP4.343.00 to 5.71+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3960.917 to 1.732+/- 0.407
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

15 career BF

xwOBA0.191
K%16.6%
BB%6.5%
Barrel2.3%
vs RHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%14.9%
BB%7.6%
Barrel2.6%