Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Alvarez, Andrew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
14.2% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.04
ERA rolling p504.33
Observed weight47%
ERA
3.03 3.65 4.33 5.00 5.62
FIP
2.51 2.97 3.48 3.98 4.44
K%
18.5% 20.2% 22.2% 24.1% 25.8%
BB%
7.6% 8.5% 9.6% 10.6% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
22
ERA4.04
49
BB%10.3%
31
K%24.9%
68 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
42 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.2%
84 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo92.3
19
Hard-hit allowed43.3%
23
Whiff%24.9%
65 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+103
53
Curveball Stuff+104
79
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+103
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarez, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-06: 0.3132026-07-07: 0.3132026-07-08: 0.3132026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3132026-07-12: 0.3132026-07-13: 0.3132026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3212026-07-17: 0.321 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarez, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 38%38%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 29.8%4-Seam Fastball: 28.7%Slider: 24.2%Sinker: 14.4%Changeup: 2.9% CU30% · 83 mphprimary pitch CU 30%FF 29%SL 24%SI 14%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Curveball: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.1 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 31.2% 126 104 limited sample
FB 26.2% 106 97 limited sample
SL 25.0% 101 103 limited sample
SI 14.4% 58 100 limited sample
CH 3.2% 13 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 29%, Curveball 27%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.47
K% Δ+0.041
Sample48.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.2----
Batters Faced265----
K%20.8%14.2% to 26.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.2%6.0% to 11.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%20.9%14.1% to 25.9%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.350.14 to 1.89+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3510.230 to 0.359+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed8.1%1.9% to 9.0%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.511.79 to 5.43+/- 1.82
FIP4.303.00 to 5.71+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3960.917 to 1.732+/- 0.407
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

15 career BF

xwOBA0.191
K%16.6%
BB%6.5%
Barrel2.3%
vs RHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%14.9%
BB%7.6%
Barrel2.6%