Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Senga, Kodai

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
18.6% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal5 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace7.05
ERA rolling p505.68
Observed weight56%
ERA
4.56 5.09 5.68 6.27 6.81
FIP
3.93 4.42 4.96 5.50 5.98
K%
22.0% 23.5% 25.1% 26.7% 28.1%
BB%
10.3% 11.2% 12.2% 13.2% 14.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
10
ERA7.05
3
BB%14.0%
7 -23 vs proj
K%26.3%
79
xwOBA allowed0.351
14 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.2%
2 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
42
Whiff%26.3%
77 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Slider Stuff+99
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senga, Kodai · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-09-12: 0.3442026-09-13: 0.3442026-09-14: 0.3442026-09-18: 0.3462026-09-19: 0.3462026-09-20: 0.3462026-09-21: 0.3532026-09-22: 0.3532026-09-23: 0.3512026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.351 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senga, Kodai · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.7%Forkball: 26.2%Cutter: 13.3%Sweeper: 8.7%Slider: 6.3%Sinker: 3.4% FF42% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 42%FO 26%FC 13%ST 9%SL 6%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphForkball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.2 mphFO83 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.5 mphST82 mphSlider: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSinker: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.9 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 75″ drop, 66.4 mphCU66 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 61.7% 291 102 qualified
FC 20.1% 95 99 limited sample
SL 12.9% 61 99 limited sample
SI 5.1% 24 89 limited sample
CB 0.2% 1 84 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Forkball 28%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.09
K% Δ+0.022
Sample64.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings136.6----
Batters Faced586----
K%24.1%18.6% to 29.6%+/- 5.5%
BB%10.5%7.9% to 13.7%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.2%21.0% to 29.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.210.56 to 1.83+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3200.259 to 0.329+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.962.16 to 5.31+/- 1.58
FIP4.293.09 to 5.97+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3741.063 to 1.596+/- 0.267
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

641 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.4%
BB%13.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

631 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%22.2%
BB%8.6%
Barrel7.5%