Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Senga, Kodai

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
18.6% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace8.70
ERA rolling p506.12
Observed weight45%
ERA
5.00 5.53 6.12 6.71 7.24
FIP
4.22 4.71 5.24 5.78 6.27
K%
20.9% 22.6% 24.4% 26.3% 27.9%
BB%
9.7% 10.7% 11.8% 12.9% 13.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
6
ERA8.70
1
BB%14.0%
8 -21 vs proj
K%25.5%
71
xwOBA allowed0.348
17 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.6%
5 -40 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
52
Whiff%25.5%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+99
28
Sinker Stuff+87
1
Slider Stuff+104
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senga, Kodai · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.348 2026-07-05: 0.3402026-07-06: 0.3402026-07-07: 0.3402026-07-08: 0.3402026-07-09: 0.3532026-07-10: 0.3532026-07-11: 0.3532026-07-12: 0.3482026-07-13: 0.3482026-07-14: 0.3482026-07-15: 0.3482026-07-16: 0.348 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senga, Kodai · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.9%Forkball: 22.9%Cutter: 19.7%Sweeper: 9.1%Slider: 6.8%Sinker: 4.1% FF37% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 37%FO 23%FC 20%ST 9%SL 7%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphForkball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.1 mphFO83 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.7 mphST81 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphSinker: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.5 mphSI89 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 75″ drop, 66.4 mphCU66 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.1% 138 100 limited sample
FC 29.2% 82 102 limited sample
SL 15.7% 44 104 limited sample
SI 5.7% 16 87 limited sample
CB 0.4% 1 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Forkball 28%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+4.74
K% Δ+0.014
Sample42.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.5----
Batters Faced594----
K%24.1%18.6% to 29.6%+/- 5.5%
BB%10.5%7.9% to 13.7%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.2%21.0% to 29.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.210.56 to 1.83+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3200.259 to 0.329+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.962.16 to 5.31+/- 1.58
FIP4.293.09 to 5.97+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3741.063 to 1.596+/- 0.267
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

641 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.4%
BB%13.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

631 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%22.2%
BB%8.6%
Barrel7.5%