Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Forkball 28%, Cutter 20%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Senga, Kodai
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.98 |
| ERA current pace | 9.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 5.58 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
4.40
4.96
5.58
6.21
6.77
FIP
3.55
4.06
4.63
5.20
5.72
K%
19.5%
21.5%
23.6%
25.8%
27.7%
BB%
8.4%
9.5%
10.7%
11.9%
13.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.4%
13
Barrel allowed9.9%
26
-21 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
64
Hard-hit allowed40.8%
41
K%23.9%
59
Whiff%24.9%
64
xwOBA allowed0.339
28
-16 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
36%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 49.1% | 138 | 100 | limited sample |
| FC | 29.2% | 82 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 15.7% | 44 | 104 | limited sample |
| SI | 5.7% | 16 | 87 | limited sample |
| CB | 0.4% | 1 | 81 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +5.04 |
| K% Δ | -0.002 |
| Sample | 23.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 137.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 589 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.1% | 18.6% to 29.6% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 10.5% | 7.9% to 13.7% | +/- 2.9% |
| Whiff% | 24.2% | 21.0% to 29.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.21 | 0.56 to 1.83 | +/- 0.64 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.320 | 0.259 to 0.329 | +/- 0.035 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 5.0% to 11.3% | +/- 3.1% |
| ERA | 3.96 | 2.16 to 5.31 | +/- 1.58 |
| FIP | 4.29 | 3.09 to 5.97 | +/- 1.44 |
| WHIP | 1.374 | 1.063 to 1.596 | +/- 0.267 |
vs LHH
641 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 13.0% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
vs RHH
631 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |