Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 61%, Slider 18%, Cutter 15%.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Vargas, Carlos
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
68
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.60 |
| ERA current pace | 3.77 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.64 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
ERA
1.76
2.65
3.64
4.63
5.52
FIP
2.67
3.19
3.78
4.37
4.89
K%
14.5%
17.1%
20.0%
23.0%
25.6%
BB%
3.5%
5.0%
6.7%
8.4%
10.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
92
ERA3.77
59
BB%4.6%
98
+21 vs proj
K%23.0%
57
+29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
35
Barrel allowed8.6%
32
-26 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed34.5%
79
Whiff%17.6%
11
-19 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+105
78
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
47%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 46.8% | 108 | 98 | limited sample |
| SL | 32.0% | 74 | 105 | limited sample |
| FC | 20.3% | 47 | 106 | limited sample |
| CH | 0.9% | 2 | 134 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.19 |
| K% Δ | +0.042 |
| Sample | 20.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 36.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 160 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.8% | 12.3% to 26.9% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 3.8% to 12.4% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 20.2% | 14.5% to 26.8% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 0.52 to 2.49 | +/- 0.98 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.325 | 0.243 to 0.365 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.9% | 3.0% to 10.4% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 3.96 | 1.61 to 6.42 | +/- 2.41 |
| FIP | 4.53 | 3.23 to 6.09 | +/- 1.43 |
| WHIP | 1.334 | 1.059 to 1.744 | +/- 0.342 |
vs LHH
185 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHH
247 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |