Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Montero, Keider

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.4% K%
Range
15.4% to 24.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace3.33
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.57 3.07 3.62 4.18 4.68
FIP
3.42 3.76 4.14 4.51 4.85
K%
15.6% 16.7% 17.9% 19.1% 20.2%
BB%
5.0% 5.6% 6.3% 6.9% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.01
90
ERA3.33
68
BB%5.7%
90 +24 vs proj
K%16.8%
13
xwOBA allowed0.293
70 +43 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
56 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
49
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
52
Whiff%15.4%
3
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+104
84
Slider Stuff+106
80
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Montero, Keider · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.293 2026-07-06: 0.2942026-07-07: 0.2942026-07-08: 0.2942026-07-09: 0.2942026-07-10: 0.2952026-07-11: 0.2952026-07-12: 0.2952026-07-13: 0.2952026-07-14: 0.2932026-07-15: 0.2932026-07-16: 0.2932026-07-17: 0.293 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Montero, Keider · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montero, Keider · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.0%Sinker: 22.1%Slider: 17.6%Knuckle Curve: 14.2%Changeup: 14.0%Unknown: 0.1% FF32% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 22%SL 18%KC 14%CH 14%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montero, Keider · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 1″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSinker: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphSlider: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphKnuckle Curve: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 80.5 mphKC80 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 9″ drop, 51.9 mphUN52 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.0% 324 105 qualified
SI 21.1% 207 103 qualified
SL 16.9% 166 106 limited sample
CH 14.9% 146 104 limited sample
CB 14.1% 138 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.312 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Slider 21%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.76
K% Δ-0.016
Sample96.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.4----
Batters Faced306----
K%18.4%15.4% to 24.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.5%5.3% to 9.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%19.0%16.9% to 23.3%+/- 3.2%
HR/91.551.15 to 2.30+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3380.282 to 0.353+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.6% to 11.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA5.093.22 to 6.12+/- 1.45
FIP4.713.59 to 5.56+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3641.086 to 1.642+/- 0.278
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

438 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%16.2%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

429 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%19.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.2%