Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Detmers, Reid

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.1% K%
Range
21.7% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal6 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.36
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight76%
ERA
1.58 2.56 3.65 4.75 5.73
FIP
2.31 2.76 3.26 3.76 4.21
K%
26.0% 27.1% 28.3% 29.6% 30.7%
BB%
6.2% 6.7% 7.4% 8.0% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
89
ERA3.36
73
BB%6.8%
81 +31 vs proj
K%28.4%
88
xwOBA allowed0.281
84 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
43
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed37.9%
53
Whiff%25.7%
73
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Slider Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+105
92
Sinker Stuff+85
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Detmers, Reid · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-12: 0.2772026-09-13: 0.2772026-09-14: 0.2772026-09-18: 0.2792026-09-19: 0.2792026-09-20: 0.2792026-09-21: 0.2792026-09-22: 0.2792026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.281 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Detmers, Reid · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.8%Slider: 32.8%Curveball: 11.0%Changeup: 9.3%Sinker: 1.0%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF46% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 46%SL 33%CU 11%CH 9%SI 1%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSlider: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 72.3 mphCU72 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mphSinker: 1% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.3 mphPO87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.6% 759 103 qualified
SL 32.3% 549 106 qualified
CH 11.2% 190 103 limited sample
CB 10.2% 173 105 limited sample
SI 1.7% 29 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slider 31%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.00
K% Δ+0.003
Sample187.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings45.5----
Batters Faced200----
K%28.1%21.7% to 35.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.8%5.5% to 12.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%27.8%23.1% to 33.6%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.280.67 to 2.23+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3060.268 to 0.372+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 13.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.362.33 to 7.55+/- 2.61
FIP3.652.50 to 4.88+/- 1.19
WHIP1.3371.071 to 1.832+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

518 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%25.8%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1576 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%26.7%
BB%8.7%
Barrel10.0%