Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Detmers, Reid

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.1% K%
Range
21.7% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.39
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.51 3.43 4.45 5.48 6.40
FIP
2.67 3.08 3.55 4.01 4.43
K%
24.5% 25.9% 27.4% 29.0% 30.4%
BB%
6.9% 7.7% 8.6% 9.4% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
73
ERA4.39
40
BB%8.2%
58
K%27.0%
79
xwOBA allowed0.287
75 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.1%
43
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
54
Whiff%25.0%
65 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+108
89
Changeup Stuff+103
55
Curveball Stuff+104
86
Sinker Stuff+87
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Detmers, Reid · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.287 2026-07-05: 0.2792026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2792026-07-08: 0.2792026-07-09: 0.2792026-07-10: 0.2792026-07-11: 0.2872026-07-12: 0.2872026-07-13: 0.2872026-07-14: 0.2872026-07-15: 0.2872026-07-16: 0.287 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Detmers, Reid · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.7%Slider: 32.3%Changeup: 10.7%Curveball: 10.5%Sinker: 1.7%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF45% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 45%SL 32%CH 11%CU 11%SI 2%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSlider: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 72.4 mphCU72 mphSinker: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.3 mphPO87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.8% 500 103 qualified
SL 31.4% 358 108 qualified
CH 12.4% 142 103 limited sample
CB 9.8% 112 104 limited sample
SI 2.5% 29 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slider 31%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ-0.010
Sample111.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings45.9----
Batters Faced202----
K%28.1%21.7% to 35.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.8%5.5% to 12.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%27.8%23.2% to 33.6%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.280.67 to 2.23+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3060.268 to 0.372+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 13.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.362.32 to 7.55+/- 2.61
FIP3.652.50 to 4.88+/- 1.19
WHIP1.3371.070 to 1.833+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

518 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%25.8%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1576 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%26.7%
BB%8.7%
Barrel10.0%