Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Cutter 23%, Split-Finger 15%.
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026
Bradley, Taj
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.43 |
| ERA current pace | 2.77 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.58 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
ERA
2.53
3.03
3.58
4.13
4.63
FIP
2.96
3.29
3.66
4.03
4.36
K%
22.5%
24.0%
25.6%
27.2%
28.7%
BB%
7.1%
7.9%
8.7%
9.6%
10.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
42
-17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.9%
35
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
23
K%27.5%
82
+29 vs proj
Whiff%25.6%
68
+21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
56
+16 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
47%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 59.5% | 408 | 110 | qualified |
| FC | 26.8% | 184 | 96 | limited sample |
| CB | 13.7% | 94 | 98 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.54 |
| K% Δ | +0.048 |
| Sample | 59.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 142.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 615 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.7% | 19.0% to 29.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.3% to 10.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 22.8% | 20.0% to 26.9% | +/- 3.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.88 to 2.10 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.327 | 0.287 to 0.357 | +/- 0.035 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 5.8% to 12.0% | +/- 3.1% |
| ERA | 4.31 | 3.66 to 6.62 | +/- 1.48 |
| FIP | 4.14 | 3.32 to 5.30 | +/- 0.99 |
| WHIP | 1.307 | 1.112 to 1.589 | +/- 0.238 |
vs LHH
853 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.309 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 10.0% |
vs RHH
818 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.298 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |