Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Bradley, Taj

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
19.0% to 29.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Balanced starter Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal4 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.59
ERA rolling p503.88
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.79 3.31 3.88 4.46 4.98
FIP
3.22 3.57 3.95 4.34 4.69
K%
23.5% 24.7% 26.0% 27.3% 28.5%
BB%
7.6% 8.3% 9.0% 9.8% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
67
ERA3.59
59
BB%9.4%
40 -18 vs proj
K%27.4%
80 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.304
61 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
23 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
86
Hard-hit allowed45.4%
11
Whiff%24.0%
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+95
5
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Curveball Stuff+99
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bradley, Taj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.304 2026-07-05: 0.3092026-07-06: 0.3092026-07-07: 0.3092026-07-08: 0.3092026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3042026-07-15: 0.3042026-07-16: 0.304 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bradley, Taj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bradley, Taj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Cutter: 23.5%Split-Finger: 19.5%Curveball: 9.0% FF48% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 48%FC 24%FS 19%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bradley, Taj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCutter: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphSplit-Finger: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.3 mphFS91 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 81.9 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 60.7% 558 110 qualified
FC 27.0% 248 95 qualified
CB 12.3% 113 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Cutter 23%, Split-Finger 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.72
K% Δ+0.047
Sample105.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.0----
Batters Faced621----
K%22.7%19.0% to 29.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.2%6.3% to 10.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%22.8%20.0% to 26.9%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.320.88 to 2.10+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3270.287 to 0.357+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.8% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.313.66 to 6.62+/- 1.48
FIP4.143.31 to 5.30+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3071.113 to 1.589+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

853 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%22.4%
BB%9.2%
Barrel10.0%
vs RHH

818 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%21.8%
BB%7.2%
Barrel8.1%