Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Thomas, Connor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
9.8% to 23.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason8.18
ERA current pace9.15
ERA rolling p508.49
Observed weight32%
ERA
6.02 7.19 8.49 9.80 10.97
FIP
3.27 3.82 4.44 5.06 5.61
K%
12.3% 14.7% 17.3% 19.9% 22.3%
BB%
3.5% 4.8% 6.3% 7.8% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
6
ERA9.15
0
BB%7.9%
63
K%14.9%
6 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
33
Barrel allowed4.7%
89 +63 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
26
Whiff%19.2%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+101
41
Cutter Stuff+110
99
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+110
96
Slider Stuff+99
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

6 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Thomas, Connor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.327 2026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3282026-09-25: 0.3282026-09-26: 0.327 2026-09-21 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Thomas, Connor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thomas, Connor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 23.3%4-Seam Fastball: 23.1%Changeup: 19.7%Sweeper: 17.7%Cutter: 16.2% SI23% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 23%FF 23%CH 20%ST 18%FC 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thomas, Connor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.0 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.8 mphST83 mphCutter: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 24.9% 79 110 limited sample
FB 23.3% 74 102 limited sample
CH 20.2% 64 101 limited sample
SL 17.0% 54 99 limited sample
FC 14.5% 46 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 37%, Cutter 26%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.40
K% Δ-0.047
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.8----
Batters Faced290----
K%19.6%9.8% to 23.9%+/- 7.1%
BB%7.2%2.1% to 9.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%18.1%10.9% to 22.5%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.470.29 to 2.13+/- 0.92
xwOBA Against0.3320.239 to 0.366+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed9.0%5.2% to 11.7%+/- 3.3%
ERA6.755.07 to 11.67+/- 3.30
FIP4.382.64 to 5.77+/- 1.56
WHIP1.3420.981 to 1.662+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

25 career BF

xwOBA0.229
K%10.8%
BB%3.5%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

54 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%10.2%
BB%3.7%
Barrel8.4%