Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Morejon, Adrian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
19.5% to 34.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
90
Arsenal5 metrics
94
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.40
ERA current pace2.85
ERA rolling p503.07
Observed weight60%
ERA
1.45 2.22 3.07 3.92 4.69
FIP
1.50 2.09 2.75 3.41 4.00
K%
24.3% 26.0% 27.8% 29.6% 31.2%
BB%
5.7% 6.5% 7.5% 8.4% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
86
ERA2.85
85
BB%7.8%
67
K%29.6%
91 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.236
98 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.3%
99 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo99.5
99
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
87
Whiff%31.9%
96 +37 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+112
99
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Changeup Stuff+106
78
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Slider Stuff+114
100
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morejon, Adrian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.236 2026-09-12: 0.2362026-09-13: 0.2352026-09-14: 0.2352026-09-18: 0.2352026-09-19: 0.2352026-09-20: 0.2352026-09-21: 0.2362026-09-22: 0.2362026-09-23: 0.2362026-09-24: 0.2362026-09-25: 0.2362026-09-26: 0.236 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morejon, Adrian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morejon, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.1%Changeup: 22.6%Slider: 15.7%4-Seam Fastball: 13.6% SI48% · 100 mphprimary pitch SI 48%CH 23%SL 16%FF 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morejon, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 99.5 mphSI100 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 92.1 mphCH92 mphSlider: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.4 mphSL89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 99.3 mphFF99 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 47.0% 364 112 qualified
CH 22.7% 176 106 limited sample
SL 16.8% 130 114 limited sample
FB 13.4% 104 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.242 vs 0.278 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 61%, Slider 24%, Changeup 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.045
Sample86.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.7----
Batters Faced163----
K%25.1%19.5% to 34.2%+/- 7.3%
BB%7.0%3.7% to 10.9%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%23.9%18.9% to 29.3%+/- 5.2%
HR/90.730.06 to 1.52+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2980.243 to 0.337+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.2% to 11.3%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.380.68 to 5.17+/- 2.24
FIP3.091.85 to 5.31+/- 1.73
WHIP1.1550.888 to 1.522+/- 0.317
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

395 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%24.6%
BB%5.4%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

594 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%22.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel7.1%