Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Morejon, Adrian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
19.5% to 34.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal5 metrics
92
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.40
ERA current pace3.42
ERA rolling p503.41
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.82 2.57 3.41 4.24 5.00
FIP
1.71 2.29 2.94 3.59 4.17
K%
22.0% 24.0% 26.3% 28.5% 30.5%
BB%
4.4% 5.4% 6.6% 7.7% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
78
ERA3.42
67
BB%6.0%
88
K%27.6%
82
xwOBA allowed0.247
97 +31 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.2%
99 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo99.4
99
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
89
Whiff%32.2%
96 +40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+113
100
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Changeup Stuff+108
88
Fastball Stuff+106
76
Slider Stuff+114
100
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morejon, Adrian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.247 2026-07-06: 0.2492026-07-07: 0.2522026-07-08: 0.2522026-07-09: 0.2522026-07-10: 0.2522026-07-11: 0.2482026-07-12: 0.2482026-07-13: 0.2472026-07-14: 0.2472026-07-15: 0.2472026-07-16: 0.2472026-07-17: 0.247 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morejon, Adrian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morejon, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.8%Slider: 20.9%Changeup: 19.4%4-Seam Fastball: 13.9% SI46% · 99 mphprimary pitch SI 46%SL 21%CH 19%FF 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morejon, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 99.5 mphSI99 mphSlider: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 92.1 mphCH92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 99.2 mphFF99 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.2% 252 112 qualified
SL 21.1% 115 114 limited sample
CH 19.1% 104 108 limited sample
FB 13.6% 74 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.242 vs 0.278 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 61%, Slider 24%, Changeup 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ+0.025
Sample52.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.2----
Batters Faced165----
K%25.1%19.5% to 34.2%+/- 7.3%
BB%7.0%3.7% to 10.9%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%23.9%18.9% to 29.3%+/- 5.2%
HR/90.760.06 to 1.52+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2980.243 to 0.337+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.2% to 11.3%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.390.68 to 5.17+/- 2.24
FIP3.091.85 to 5.31+/- 1.73
WHIP1.1550.888 to 1.522+/- 0.317
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

395 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%24.6%
BB%5.4%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

594 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%22.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel7.1%