Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Richards, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.6% K%
Range
19.8% to 35.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal4 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.28
ERA current pace3.45
ERA rolling p503.79
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.09 2.89 3.79 4.69 5.50
FIP
3.14 3.59 4.09 4.59 5.04
K%
19.7% 21.4% 23.3% 25.2% 26.9%
BB%
6.7% 7.7% 8.7% 9.8% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA3.45
71
BB%7.6%
69 +30 vs proj
K%21.7%
46 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.314
48 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
29 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
14
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
32
Whiff%20.0%
26 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Slider Stuff+99
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Richards, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.314 2026-09-12: 0.2982026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.3022026-09-19: 0.3022026-09-20: 0.3022026-09-21: 0.3062026-09-22: 0.3062026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.314 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Richards, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Richards, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.1%Changeup: 27.4%Slider: 9.0%Sinker: 0.5% FF63% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 63%CH 27%SL 9%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Richards, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 63% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 80.0 mphCH80 mphSlider: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphSinker: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 84.8 mphSI85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 63.7% 478 108 qualified
CH 27.3% 205 98 qualified
SL 8.9% 67 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 59%, Changeup 31%, Slider 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ-0.038
Sample81.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced152----
K%25.6%19.8% to 35.1%+/- 7.7%
BB%9.9%6.6% to 14.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%24.1%20.0% to 33.2%+/- 6.6%
HR/91.190.49 to 1.99+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3000.233 to 0.364+/- 0.066
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.2% to 11.1%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.372.12 to 6.88+/- 2.38
FIP3.932.65 to 5.30+/- 1.32
WHIP1.3060.962 to 1.657+/- 0.347
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1131 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%23.8%
BB%11.4%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

1401 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%26.1%
BB%8.9%
Barrel6.3%