Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Bednar, David

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
20.5% to 36.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.70
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.30 3.10 3.99 4.88 5.68
FIP
1.33 2.21 3.20 4.18 5.07
K%
22.0% 24.6% 27.6% 30.5% 33.1%
BB%
5.6% 7.0% 8.6% 10.1% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
37
Barrel allowed4.1%
89 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
74
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
55
K%26.7%
79
Whiff%28.1%
83
xwOBA allowed0.268
86 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bednar, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2582026-05-19: 0.2772026-05-21: 0.2782026-05-23: 0.2712026-05-24: 0.2712026-05-25: 0.2712026-05-26: 0.2702026-05-28: 0.2702026-05-29: 0.2702026-05-30: 0.2702026-05-31: 0.2702026-06-01: 0.268 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bednar, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bednar, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.7%Split-Finger: 33.3%Curveball: 25.9% MIX FF 41%FS 33%CU 26% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bednar, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.0FFFS: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FSCU: HB -0.1, IVB 4.5CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 61.6% 189 101 limited sample
CB 38.4% 118 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Curveball 37%, Split-Finger 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.52
K% Δ-0.002
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.0----
Batters Faced172----
K%26.9%20.5% to 36.3%+/- 7.9%
BB%8.6%4.5% to 12.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.9%21.7% to 33.4%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.170.43 to 2.03+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2920.236 to 0.346+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.4% to 14.5%+/- 5.0%
ERA3.181.90 to 6.42+/- 2.26
FIP3.232.05 to 7.05+/- 2.50
WHIP1.1680.955 to 1.571+/- 0.308
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

651 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%25.8%
BB%9.2%
Barrel10.8%
vs RHH

761 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%28.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.5%