Bednar, David
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.64 |
| ERA current pace | 4.70 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.99 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 61.6% | 189 | 101 | limited sample |
| CB | 38.4% | 118 | 105 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.52 |
| K% Δ | -0.002 |
| Sample | 25.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 172 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.9% | 20.5% to 36.3% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 4.5% to 12.6% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 26.9% | 21.7% to 33.4% | +/- 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.43 to 2.03 | +/- 0.80 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.292 | 0.236 to 0.346 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 4.4% to 14.5% | +/- 5.0% |
| ERA | 3.18 | 1.90 to 6.42 | +/- 2.26 |
| FIP | 3.23 | 2.05 to 7.05 | +/- 2.50 |
| WHIP | 1.168 | 0.955 to 1.571 | +/- 0.308 |
651 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 25.8% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 10.8% |
761 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 28.1% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |